TB to win+167
TLDR: The Rays lost by 1. The case failed at its center: Misiorowski didn't leave early. He went 5 innings on 78 pitches and allowed 1 run, and Milwaukee's bullpen, including Ashby, covered the rest.
Point
- Missing fewer bats
Misiorowski's swing-and-miss rate has fallen from 40.2% in the regular season to 16.1% this October, so Rays hitters can foul pitches off and stay alive.
Didn't matterOnly 3 strikeouts in 5 innings, but Rays scored once off him - Short starts
He needed 88 pitches for 4 innings in the NLDS and 94 for 4.1 in the NLCS, so patient at-bats can bring Milwaukee's bullpen in by the 5th.
Hurt usHe went 5 full innings on 78 pitches - Milwaukee's calendar
The Brewers have played just 8 games in 25 days, and Pat Murphy admits workouts can't replace game speed: "You can't recreate real."
Hurt usNo rust: 2 first-inning runs, rested bullpen allowed 1 run - Rays vs. right-handers
Tampa Bay hit .263/.332/.420 against right-handers, its stronger side, and Misiorowski is a right-hander.
Hurt us4 hits, 1 run in 5 innings off Misiorowski
Counterpoint
- The velocity problem
Baseball Prospectus has the Rays worst in baseball against four-seamers of 98 mph or more (.206 wOBA), and Misiorowski is averaging 101.0 this October.
Hurt usRecord-fast stuff mostly held them, though Caminero doubled off 101.5 - Lefty bullpen
Milwaukee can use 5 left-handed relievers, including Aaron Ashby and DL Hall, against a Rays lineup that slugged only .364 against lefties.
Hurt usAshby struck out Hicks, ended the 7th scoreless
Neutral
- Weather
No weather — indoors at American Family Field.
Didn't matterIndoor game, no weather - Roof closed
The Brewers closed the roof for Game 1, and a ball that hits the roof truss or cables over fair territory stays in play for both teams.
Didn't matterNo play involving the roof was reported