BOS to win+122TLDR: Schlittler is the best arm in this series, but Boston faces a Yankee lineup without Judge and a pen short on lefties, and a rookie lefty in form can keep this close enough to steal.
Point
- Lineup
Aaron Judge is off the Wild Card roster with a strained right calf, and New York went 52-43 without him this season.
- Yankee bullpen
New York left relievers Ryan Weathers and Tim Hill off the roster, which leaves less left-handed help for Boston's lefty-leaning order late.
- Tolle's form
Payton Tolle went 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA over his final 13 starts, so the rookie arrives pitching his best baseball.
- Crochet
Garrett Crochet made the roster even though he hasn't pitched since April 25, and a relief role alone adds a power arm to a short pen.
Counterpoint
- Schlittler vs. Boston
Cam Schlittler had a 0.74 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 24.1 innings over 4 starts against Boston, so this lineup has rarely solved him.
- Travel and rest
A nor'easter pushed Boston's Sunday finale to St. Petersburg, so it flew north from Florida while New York rested after its own finale was canceled.
Neutral
- Weather
Mid-60s and partly cloudy at first pitch with a 4 mph breeze and almost no rain chance, so the air favors neither lineup.
- Venue
Yankee Stadium's right-field line is 314 feet, a short porch that rewards left-handed pull power for both lineups tonight.