BOS to win+122TLDR: Gray has already beaten this Yankees team twice this year, and Boston's rested, left-heavy bullpen matches up with the lefty bats Boone is stacking, which is enough to back them at plus money.
Point
- Gray vs. New York
Gray posted a 1.98 ERA in 2 starts against the Yankees this year, and Boston won both, including one at Yankee Stadium.
- Boston's bullpen
Chapman, Whitlock and Crochet all sat out Game 1, and none of the 5 relievers used got more than 4 outs, so the full late-game plan is available.
- Lefty on lefty
Boston carries 5 left-handed relievers (Chapman, Crochet, Miller, Gamboa, Bennett) against a Yankees order whose lefties went 8-for-18 in Game 1.
- Righty bats vs. Fried
8 of Boston's 9 starters hit from the right side or switch-hit, and the club has a .768 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
Counterpoint
- Roman Anthony
An MRI found new strains in his right hand, and he is off the roster for the rest of the series, taking Boston's leadoff man out.
- Fried vs. Boston
Fried has a 1.93 career ERA in 7 starts against Boston and has allowed them 1 run over 11⅔ innings this year.
Neutral
- Rest
A nor'easter wiped out the Yankees' final weekend, and both clubs saved their closers in Game 1, so neither side has a rest edge.
- Weather
Mostly cloudy and in the upper 60s at first pitch, with a 5-7 mph breeze, so the air gives no help to either lineup.