SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles

Best Bet
FSU to win
By JR·1 min read

TLDR: Florida State already has a live game under its belt with Ashton Daniels at quarterback, while SMU opens cold on the road into a hot, storm-threatened Labor Day night at a rebuilt, desperate-for-a-signature-win Doak Campbell.

Point

  • Kickoff

    Kickoff is 6:30 PM CT at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, a home night opener where the crowd gives Florida State an edge.

  • Weather

    A high near 91 with evening thunderstorm chances and lingering overnight rain in Tallahassee pushes the game to the ground, favoring Florida State's style.

  • Stadium

    Doak Campbell now holds just over 67,000 after a two-year renovation, and a full prime-time crowd greets its first Labor Day test in the new bowl.

  • Season openers

    SMU has not played a snap in 2026, the last of 138 FBS teams to kick off, and takes its first-ever trip to Tallahassee cold.

Counterpoint

  • Last meeting

    SMU beat Florida State 42-16 in this same stadium in 2024 during its ACC debut, a lopsided result the Seminoles still have to answer for.

Neutral

  • QB reps

    Ashton Daniels has one game of live tape from a win over New Mexico State, while Kevin Jennings enters year 3 with 59 touchdowns over two seasons and a healed camp finger injury.

  • Coach's seat

    Mike Norvell sits 38-34 at Florida State with the program going 7-17 the past two seasons and a buyout near $45-50 million and shrinking, pressure on a staff still searching for footing.

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