CLE to win-130
TLDR: Williams has the best arm in this game and pitches where he has been sharpest, against a White Sox staff that keeps putting Guardians on base for free and has fewer arms to protect Burke.
Point
- Williams at home
Williams had a 3.28 ERA at Progressive Field this year against 3.76 overall, and the deciding game is in his own building.
- Williams' stuff
Williams led the AL with 248 strikeouts and threw 16 pitches of 100 mph or harder in Game 2, so he can win even in a short outing.
- Chicago's walks
White Sox pitchers walked 10 in Game 3 and 8 in Game 4, and Cleveland turned that free traffic into both of its wins.
- Chicago's bridge
Erick Fedde threw 61 pitches Thursday and is likely out, and Hagen Smith is questionable, so Chicago has fewer arms to cover the innings after Burke.
Counterpoint
- Burke on the road
Burke had a 2.58 road ERA this season against 3.86 at home, so pitching away from Chicago has suited him all year.
- Cleveland's bullpen
Cleveland used 8 pitchers Thursday and Cade Smith threw 31 pitches across Games 3 and 4, so the late innings are thin if Williams leaves early.
Neutral
- Weather
Local forecasts call for a mostly cloudy, dry evening near 68 degrees, with rain not due until after 11 PM ET.
- Travel and rest
Chicago to Cleveland is a short flight, and Friday's off day gave both clubs the same rest before the deciding game.