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Herbert's New Toy Under McDaniel Has Fantasy Buzz

By Vinnie the Gooch·3 min read
Herbert's New Toy Under McDaniel Has Fantasy Buzz
via ESPN

Justin Herbert is buying into Mike McDaniel's revamped scheme and a rookie receiver early, and it's already reshaping how he should be drafted.

Chargers camp is barely a week old and the headline isn't a depth chart shakeup, it's Justin Herbert looking comfortable in a brand new offense. New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has Herbert working out of a revised shotgun stance and leaning on anticipatory throws, and by all accounts the timing has been sharp since day one. That matters more than it sounds. Herbert has spent his career carrying a middling supporting cast, so any real structural upgrade to the scheme around him is worth paying attention to.

The name generating the most buzz isn't Ladd McConkey, it's rookie wideout Brenen Thompson. Herbert has been connecting with him consistently on crossing routes, and the quarterback himself said flatly that Thompson "is gonna be very good." When a guy who's thrown to Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Davante Adams starts publicly hyping an unproven rookie in late July, that's a signal worth banking. McConkey and Derius Davis still flashed with deep completions of their own on Saturday, so this isn't a passing of the torch so much as another mouth added to an already interesting room.

Elsewhere in camp, the drama is on the offensive line and off the field entirely on defense. The left guard spot is a genuine free-for-all between Trey Pipkins III, Kayode Awosika, Trevor Penning and rookie Jake Slaughter, with Pipkins only just getting his first crack with the top group on Friday. McDaniel is telling everyone not to overreact until pads come on next week, which is the right call, but it's a reminder that the Chargers still haven't settled their trenches even with Herbert's protection theoretically better than it's been in years.

The other subplot is Tuli Tuipulotu sitting out team drills amid a contract standoff. He's entering the final year of his rookie deal after racking up 13 sacks last season, sixth-most in the league, and Jim Harbaugh is keeping the negotiation details close to the vest. It's not a Herbert story directly, but a disgruntled top pass rusher missing practice time in a contract year is always worth tracking, since a resolved deal (or a lack of one) can color the whole vibe of camp.

Now for the part that actually matters for your league. Herbert finished last season as the QB10 in points per game, propped up heavily by his legs as much as his arm, and that modest finish has kept his draft cost stuck in the late rounds. Current ADP has him going around pick 109 overall, roughly the 10th round in a 10-team format, which is a QB9-to-QB6 range depending on which platform you check. That's a bargain if McDaniel's system actually unlocks more efficient, higher-volume passing rather than just checkdowns.

The fantasy case for buying Herbert late is straightforward. A healthier, more talented offensive line plus a scheme built around quick anticipatory reads is the exact recipe that's turned other quarterbacks into league-winners overnight. Add a legitimate third weapon in Thompson behind McConkey, and Herbert's touchdown equity gets a real boost even if his rushing floor regresses even slightly. Drafters chasing a QB2 who can spike into a top-5 week should be circling him anywhere after round 8.

For betting markets, this is the kind of camp report that nudges things quietly rather than violently. Nobody's moving Herbert into an MVP-favorite tier off one good week of scrimmage throws, but touchdown prop and passing yardage markets tend to drift as beat reporting piles up positive on a new system. If McConkey stays the alpha and Thompson turns into a real third read, that's exactly the profile that pushes Herbert's season win total and个人 stat props up before the preseason even kicks off.

Keep an eye on padded practices starting next week for the real litmus test, both on the Herbert-McDaniel chemistry and that left guard battle. If Herbert keeps finding Thompson once real pass rush pressure shows up, his ADP is going to start climbing fast, and the value window on him closes. Grab him now while he's still priced like a game-manager instead of the ceiling play this new scheme could make him.

Justin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers