Miami enters 2026 as ACC favorite, but history isn't on their side

The ACC media poll dropped and it wasn't close. Miami got 165 of 185 first-place votes, running away with the preseason crown over SMU, Louisville and Clemson, who split the rest of the top-line support. When 89% of a conference's media corps agrees on anything, that's not a projection, that's a coronation.

Brett McMurphy

@Brett_McMurphy

ACC media preseason poll 1 Miami (165 1st place votes) 2 SMU (6) 3 Louisville (4) 4 Clemson (7) 5 Georgia Tech (2) 6 Virginia 7 NC State 8 Virginia Tech 9 Pitt 10 Duke 11 Florida State (3) 12 Cal 13 Wake Forest 14 Syracuse 15 UNC 16 Boston College 17 Stanford (1)

The full ballot tells the story. Miami at 1, SMU at 2, Louisville at 3, Clemson at 4, with first-place votes also trickling to Georgia Tech, Florida State and even Stanford. That's a conference with no shortage of teams believing in themselves, and the room still couldn't find a real argument against the Canes.

A big reason why: Darian Mensah. The transfer quarterback, who bounced from Tulane to Duke to Miami over the last calendar year on the back of contracts reportedly worth millions, was named ACC Preseason Player of the Year, hauling in 97 votes and lapping the field. He's now the 3rd straight transfer QB to line up as Miami's starter, following Cam Ward and Carson Beck, and the fact he's already the betting favorite before throwing a real pass for the program tells you what Miami's front office thinks it bought.

Brett McMurphy

@Brett_McMurphy

Miami QB Darian Mensah named ACC Preseason Player of the Year Others receiving votes: 1 Mensah (97) 2 SMU QB Kevin Jennings (25) 3 Louisville RB Isaac Brown (16) 4 NC State QB CJ Bailey (15) 5 FSU WR Duce Robinson (12) 6 Clemson LB Sammy Brown (11) 7 Virginia LB Kam Robinson (5) 8 Clemson DE Will Heldt (4) 9 Pitt QB Mason Heintschel (3)

Here's the part that should make Miami fans nervous instead of giddy. Brett McMurphy pointed out that the only other time the Hurricanes were picked to win the ACC, back in 2006, they finished 4th in the Coastal Division. Not 2nd, not on the bubble, 4th. Preseason polls in this conference have had a brutal track record lately anyway, with the last 3 favorites, Clemson, Florida State and Clemson again, all failing to actually win the league.

Brett McMurphy

@Brett_McMurphy

Only other time Miami was picked to win ACC, Canes finished 4th in Coastal Division in 2006

So the pressure is real and it's not subtle. Mario Cristobal is heading into a season where the expectation isn't "compete," it's "win the whole thing," and the last 3 preseason darlings in this conference have all come up short of that bar. Miami has the quarterback, the talent and now the target on its back. Whether that adds up to the program's first ACC title since joining in 2004, or another cautionary tale for the poll, is the whole season.