CFP and ESPN talks on 24-team playoff go past deadline

The CFP put out a statement Saturday morning, and it was long on reassurance and short on news.

Chris Vannini

@ChrisVannini

From the CFP: “While Friday, October 9 marked the end of the exclusive 30-day negotiating period with ESPN, we continue to have ongoing discussions with ESPN regarding media rights connected to potential Playoff expansion to 24 teams. The dialogue throughout the window has been constructive, and we will carry these conversations forward with ESPN as we determine the path ahead. Given the confidential nature of these discussions, there isn’t more to share at this time. We will provide additional updates when appropriate.”

In plain English: the deadline came and went, nobody signed anything, and everyone wants you to know they're still being nice to each other. The word doing the heavy lifting is "constructive," which is what you say when the money isn't there yet but you don't want to spook anybody. Ross Dellenger had already told everyone this was coming, and he framed it as negotiations rolling into next week rather than a door slamming shut.

Ross Dellenger

@RossDellenger

Expected update from the CFP: its negotiations with ESPN on expansion will continue into next week

Ross Dellenger@RossDellenger

A contract-mandated, additional five-day period will extend the CFP’s expansion negotiating window with ESPN past Friday. Will CFP leaders get the $300 million to recoup lost revenue from league title games, plus some? More in our @On3 sports biz column t.co/OoHXwtR453

The extension isn't a goodwill gesture. Dellenger reported that it's written into the contract: if there's no deal by the end of the window, CFP leadership has to hand ESPN a formal proposal, and ESPN then gets 5 business days to respond. That puts ESPN's answer around October 16, and possibly as late as Monday, October 19. If it's still unresolved after that, the CFP can take the proposal to other networks.

The whole thing comes down to one number. A 24-team bracket would kill conference championship games, and Dellenger puts what those games are worth at a combined $300 million across the FBS, up from the $200-250 million figure that had been floated before. Whoever pays for the bigger playoff has to cover that hole at a minimum. For context, the current 12-team deal pays $1.3 billion a year, and the reported projection for a 24-team format is about $1.6 billion a year.

Saturday's statement read more like a press release about a press release, and the national guys noticed. Brett McMurphy summed it up about as well as anyone could.

Brett McMurphy

@Brett_McMurphy

College Football Playoff statement on update to potential expansion to 24 teams is there is no update

He's not wrong, but don't confuse no update with no deal. ESPN holds the exclusive rights to the playoff, and once its window is fully dead, CBS, FOX, NBC and streamers like Amazon Prime Video can make their own offers. That threat is the CFP's leverage, and it's the reason ESPN can't just sit on its hands and wait for a discount. Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti said this week he's "optimistic" the field goes to 24, so the commissioners clearly want this done.

The date that really matters is December 1, which is the deadline to decide whether 24 teams happens for the 2027 season. No agreement means the playoff stays at 12. So keep an eye on ESPN's response around the 16th. If ESPN pays the $300 million, the conference title games are probably done. If it doesn't, the other networks get their shot, and things get a lot more interesting.