Josh Downs had a down year in 2025 by his own standards, and the Colts aren't pretending otherwise. He caught 58 passes for 566 yards, career lows across the board, with his yards-per-catch dropping from 11.3 in his first two seasons to 9.8. For a guy who averaged 787 yards and 103 targets a season as a rookie and sophomore, that's a real step back, not just a blip.
So what happened? A rookie tight end named Tyler Warren showed up and immediately ate into the middle of the field. Alec Pierce turned into a legit downfield threat. And Michael Pittman Jr. was still soaking up his usual target share on the outside. Downs got squeezed into a garden-variety slot role and stayed there, even though the tape said he was better than that assignment.
The Colts apparently studied this themselves and came to the same conclusion. Head coach Shane Steichen said flatly that guys need to step up and Downs is one of them, and the plan for 2026 is to stop boxing him into the slot. That means more outside alignments, more two-receiver, two-tight end sets, pre-snap motion to get him away from press coverage, and more shots at the deeper stuff he rarely got to run last year.
The bigger structural change is that Pittman isn't walking back into that receiver room. Indianapolis traded him to the Steelers this offseason, clearing more than $24 million in cap space and, more importantly for Downs, opening up a huge chunk of the target pie. Pittman caught 80 balls for 784 yards last year. Somebody in that offense inherits a good chunk of that, and Downs is the obvious in-house candidate given how the Colts are already talking about his role.
This also happens to be a contract year for Downs, which lines up perfectly with a team suddenly motivated to feature him. Nothing sharpens a receiver's route-running like a payday on the line, and nothing sharpens a coaching staff's willingness to scheme him touches like needing him to actually produce the numbers that justify an extension.
For fantasy purposes, this is a legitimate buy signal. Downs is sitting around WR37 in consensus PPR rankings with an ADP anywhere from the mid-90s to the 130s depending on the platform, which is miles too cheap for a guy projected for close to 100 targets in an offense that just lost its top receiver. One source has him gaining ground fast in drafts, up over six spots in average draft position in a single week, and pegs him for something like 98 targets, just a few behind Pierce, who typically comes off the board three rounds earlier.
Draft him as a mid-round flier with WR2 upside in PPR formats, and don't be shocked if he's the best value on your board by Week 6. Best-ball drafters should be all over the discount, and dynasty managers holding him through a rough 2025 finally have the payoff scenario they were banking on: expanded role, vacated targets, and a contract-year receiver with something to prove.
Watch camp and preseason usage closely. If Downs is lining up outside on early snaps and running the kind of routes the Colts are promising, the ADP climb isn't done yet. If he's still mostly bunched inside once the lights come on, treat the offseason talk as just that.