The Diamondbacks don't miss on doubles hitters, apparently, because they just handed one a $1.9 million bag before he's played a single pro game. Carson Kerce, the Georgia Tech shortstop Arizona took 53rd overall, agreed to a bonus well above the $1,848,200 slot value for that pick, according to Jim Callis. That's the kind of overslot money teams reserve for guys they think fell further than they should have.
Jim Callis broke the signing news, framing Kerce as a line-drive machine with instincts to spare.
2nd-rder Carson Kerce signs w/@Dbacks for $1.9 millon (slot 53 = $1,848,200). @GTBaseball SS, line-drive contact bat, second in NCAA D-I with 29 doubles, instincts apparent on bases and at shortstop. @MLBDraft
The scouting profile is refreshingly simple: this dude just doesn't miss. Kerce ran a .384/.473/.679 line at Georgia Tech, and his 29 doubles this spring set a program record and led the entire Power Four conference slate, finishing second among all of Division I. That's not a guy who's selling out for exit velocity readings on a launch monitor. It's a bat-to-ball savant who sprays line drives gap to gap and rarely strikes out, which is exactly the profile that tends to age well as pitching gets nastier up the ladder.
There's a real question with hitters like this: does the doubles power ever tick up into over-the-fence pop, or is he capped as a high-average, gap-to-gap guy forever? Kerce actually answered part of that himself this year, popping 11 home runs to go with the doubles binge, a career high that suggests the strength is starting to show up in game action, not just batting practice. Pair that with instincts scouts have flagged both on the bases and at shortstop, and you've got a player who profiles as a legitimate everyday piece if the glove holds up at short.
For a Diamondbacks farm system that's been more famous lately for graduating pitching and outfield bats to the big leagues, adding a contact-oriented shortstop with doubles power is a nice change of pace. Arizona has leaned into college performers with the bat-to-ball data to back it up, and Kerce is about as clean a profile as that philosophy produces. He won't turn heads with a 70-grade tool on a scouting card, but a $1.9 million bonus for a proven, safe-floor college bat says the front office trusts the hit tool to carry the profile.
Now it's about developmental reps. Kerce will start his pro clock in Arizona's system this summer, and the early returns everyone will watch are simple: does the doubles rate translate against pro arms, and does the shortstop defense stick well enough to keep him up the middle instead of sliding to third or second. If both hold, the Diamondbacks just got a bargain at pick 53.