It's been a long, ugly road back for Malik Nabers since he tore his ACL and meniscus last season, then needed a second cleanup procedure this spring just to get the scar tissue out of the way. For months the Giants have talked around a firm return date, which is exactly the kind of silence that makes fantasy managers spiral in July. That silence just got a little less deafening.
Hayden Winks pulled up old Nabers tape while everyone waits on the real update.
That itch to watch old clips makes sense given what came next. Per ESPN's Jordan Raanan, Nabers' recovery is now tracking closest to the Andrew Thomas model from last year, when the Giants' left tackle came back in Week 3 after a similar knee procedure. But Raanan's framing suggests Nabers might actually beat that pace, landing closer to a Week 1 return than to opening camp on PUP.
Hayden Winks relayed Raanan's latest read on the Nabers timeline.
The @JordanRaanan update on Malik Nabers is he's closest to the Andrew Thomas return last year (Week 3) and probably closer to a Week 1 return than starting on PUP. Very possible the floor is in for Nabers' ADP. https://t.co/LK5Fw6c3Sd
That's a meaningful shift in tone. A few months ago the realistic outcome looked like Nabers starting the season on PUP and easing in with a pitch count around Week 3. Now the range has tightened toward the front end of that window, which matters enormously for a receiver who's currently being drafted with some risk baked into his price.
Winks then laid out the case for why that risk is overstated. Even if Nabers comes back at just 85% of his career per-game averages coming off the ACL, he'd still produce like Tee Higgins, A.J. Brown, Zay Flowers or Nico Collins did a year ago — all comfortably top-12 fantasy receivers. And that's before accounting for what Nabers was doing in an offense that was 31st in scoring and 27th in passing yards from his rookie year through Week 4 last season, when he was still putting up WR1 numbers behind a broken offensive infrastructure.
Hayden Winks broke down the math on Nabers' floor even at a reduced workload.
If Malik Nabers put up 85% of his career average off ACL, he'd score like Tee Higgins, A.J. Brown, Zay Flowers and Nico Collins last year. And the Giants were 31st in scoring and 27th in passing yards per game from his rookie season to Week 4 last year when he posted WR1 stats.
That last part is the real story here. Nabers wasn't just good last year, he was elite production coming out of an offense that gave him almost nothing to work with. If a post-ACL version of him at 85% strength can still hang with the league's top wideouts statistically, the downside case for his ADP starts to look a lot more like a floor than a trap.
None of this guarantees Nabers suits up in Week 1 against whatever the Giants' opener throws at him. Knee recoveries, especially ones that required a second cleanup surgery, don't always follow the script. But the goalposts have moved from "hope he's ready by midseason" to "expect him early," and that alone should start nudging his draft stock back toward where his talent actually lives.