Matvei Michkov's hot start has Flyers facing a big bill

Daily Faceoff's Anthony DiMarco put the question plainly. The key word in his argument is "if."

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What does Michkov's sizzling start mean for his next contract with the #LetsGoFlyers? Michkov could earn himself a massive long-term pay day if he can maintain his new standard of play across a larger sample size this season, writes @ADiMarco25: t.co/rb8bU5k7bA

The "if" is about sample size, and that's fair. A month of hockey is a month of hockey. Still, the numbers are hard to wave off. Michkov opened this season with 6 goals and 8 points through his first 12 games. On October 17 against Ottawa he scored his 50th career goal in his 171st NHL game, the fastest any Flyer has reached 50 since Matt Read in 2014.

It also looks like the work he put in over the summer is paying off. He skipped his vacation to train and showed up to camp in better shape. Rick Tocchet has pointed to the details, saying his retrievals are "a lot better this year" and that his goals are "coming off a rebound, beats his check to the net." That's the stuff that holds up when the shooting percentage cools off, and it's why DiMarco's case is more than a hot-streak take.

Michkov has also basically carried the scoring for a team that badly needed someone to. Philly opened 0-6-3, the worst start in franchise history, and even after a 4-3-1 stretch to dig out of it they sit at 4-9-4. Without Michkov scoring this early, that hole is a lot deeper.

Now for the money. Michkov is in the final year of the 3-year entry-level deal he signed with Philadelphia, which carries a $950,000 cap hit. He'll be a restricted free agent next summer, so the Flyers keep control of him either way. Whether they keep him cheap is a different question. He's been eligible to sign an extension since July 1, and back in late July he said talks hadn't started yet.

That's the gamble for Danny Briere's front office. Sign him now, and you're paying for a very good month plus a rookie season where he led every NHL rookie in goals. Wait until summer, and if he keeps this up across 82 games, the number goes up and Michkov gets all the leverage. A long-term deal for a 50-goal-pace kid in a market dying for a star doesn't come cheap.

What to watch: whether the production holds through November and December as teams start game-planning for him, and whether any extension chatter leaks before the deadline noise takes over. If Michkov is still near the top of the Flyers' scoring in January, DiMarco's "if" won't matter anymore, and Philly is paying him like the franchise guy.