Mike Clay put his name on a full round-by-round draft board for 12-team leagues this week, and it reads less like a cheat sheet and more like a dare. Round 1 is the easy part -- Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, take your pick and move on. It's what Clay does starting in Round 2 that separates his board from the generic consensus rankings sitting in every other tab you have open.
The RB1-2 turn pick is De'Von Achane, whom Clay compares to prime Alvin Kamara, and the numbers back the crush: Achane finished as the RB6 in PPR last season with 1,838 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns despite going off boards as just the RB12 a year ago. That's the exact kind of value gap Clay is chasing all the way down his board -- find the player the market hasn't fully priced, and take him a round before you have to.
Round 3 is where things get spicy, because Clay's guy there is Jeremiyah Love, and he says he has him ranked well above consensus. The Cardinals took Love third overall this spring, the highest a running back has gone since Saquon Barkley in 2018, after he ran for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns on 6.9 yards per carry in his final Notre Dame season. Underdog has him going pick 23 as the RB13, which lines up right around where Clay wants him -- Round 3 value for what could be Round 1 production.
Here's the wrinkle Clay's board doesn't fully capture: Arizona's first depth chart of camp had Tyler Allgeier ahead of Love, and Love has since been dealing with a high ankle sprain that's kept him out of preseason action. None of that changes the long-term math -- barring further injury he's the clear lead back in an offense that badly needs juice after finishing 23rd in scoring last year -- but it's a live risk for anyone taking him in Round 3 this month. Watch the practice reports before you lock him in.
The rest of the middle rounds is Clay hunting for players whose 2025 was cut short by circumstance rather than talent. Garrett Wilson gets the Round 4 nod as a discount receiver after a knee injury limited him to seven games and 395 yards, even though he was running a 32% target share before he got hurt and the Jets now have 99 vacated WR targets up for grabs. Tyler Warren lands in Round 5 off a Pro Bowl rookie year that saw him rack up 76 catches and 817 yards before Daniel Jones' season-ending Achilles injury tanked his usage down the stretch -- Clay's betting the QB situation stabilizes enough for Warren to be a true TE1 again.
The quarterback plan is the most interesting strategic call on the whole board. Clay wants you waiting until Round 9 or 10 for a starter, and his sleeper there is Jaxson Dart, who's currently sitting around QB11 with an ADP near pick 88-100 despite averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game over his final 12 starts as a rookie. That's a QB1 weekly rate at a QB3 draft price, and it's the clearest example of Clay's whole philosophy: pay for proven ceiling, but only after the market has forgotten it exists.
None of this is a script to follow blindly -- Clay himself hedges hard on positional runs and tells drafters to stay flexible round to round. But as a framework it's useful precisely because it's opinionated. If Love's ankle checks out in the next two weeks, he's a legitimate Round 3 steal. If Wilson stays healthy through camp, he's the best value receiver on the board. And if you're staring at a QB run in Round 6 wondering whether to jump in, Clay's answer is simple: let it happen, then go get Dart three rounds later and laugh about it in Week 12.