Bruce Feldman dropped his preseason coaching temperature check on Friday, and Mike Norvell landed squarely in the danger zone alongside two of the sport's biggest names. Sharing hot seat real estate with Bill Belichick, who's reportedly facing a must-win Week Zero game against TCU, and Lincoln Riley at USC is not the company a Florida State coach wants to keep heading into year 7.
Bill Belichick has a Must-Win game tomorrow in Week Zero vs TCU. Here’s our preseason temperature check deep dive on which college coaches’ seats are the hottest, and where Mike Norvell, Lincoln Riley and others stand. Free story link: t.co/BizFOYqcOr
The numbers explain why Norvell's name keeps coming up. Florida State went 2-10 in 2024, one of the worst collapses in modern program history, then clawed back to 5-7 in 2025 despite a stunning season-opening upset of No. 8 Alabama. That kind of whiplash is exactly what gets a coach's seat labeled 'hot' instead of 'gone' — the flashes are real, but so is the losing.
It's also why nobody is actually predicting Norvell gets fired mid-season no matter how bad it gets. He signed an 8-year, $84 million-plus extension through 2031 before the 2024 disaster, and his buyout now sits around $51 million — the second-largest in college football history behind only Jimbo Fisher's Texas A&M number. That figure alone buys Norvell patience that a normal coach in his spot wouldn't get.
None of that stopped the fan speculation from firing up anyway. CFB Home floated a replacement wish list of Dan Mullen, Bret Bielema, PJ Fleck and Jason Eck — a mix of proven SEC/Big Ten retreads and a rising mid-major name — the kind of list that only gets made about coaches people think are on borrowed time.
If Mike Norvell gets fired this season who will Florida State try and hire? My quick list (try and offer em): Dan Mullen Bret Bielema P.J. Fleck Jason Eck
Chris Vannini, who co-writes the hot seat piece with Feldman, pushed back a little on the doom, pointing to reporting from Matt Baker that Norvell might be due for better luck in 2026 given some wild fumble numbers from the past couple seasons. It's a reminder that hot seat lists are about vibes and job security as much as hard projections — Florida State isn't necessarily a bad team, it's a team that's turned the ball over at a brutal rate.
Is Mike Norvell due for some good luck at Florida State? @MattBakerCFB make a case why the Seminoles might not be doomed. Some crazy fumble stats. t.co/w1STjldUZW
Whether Norvell survives 2026 probably comes down to the same thing it always does: wins. A buyout that size means Florida State's administration has every financial incentive to stay patient, but administrations have blown past bigger numbers before when boosters get loud enough. For now, Norvell heads into the season with his name stapled to Belichick's and Riley's on every hot seat list in the country — not company that inspires a lot of confidence, but not a pink slip either.