Kansas City's pitching depth took a brutal hit this week. Manager Matt Quatraro confirmed that both Stephen Kolek and Luinder Avila are headed for Tommy John surgery, wiping out the rest of their 2026 seasons and putting 2027 in serious jeopardy too.
Kolek, 29, has been a workhorse this year, throwing 213 1/3 innings between the Padres and Royals with a 4.13 ERA, a 16.7% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. He'd already been dealing with a flexor strain that bumped him from the 15-day to the 60-day IL before the news got worse. That's a lot of innings to lose from a guy who was quietly providing solid, ground-ball-heavy production (51% GB rate) out of a Royals staff that needed the stability.
Avila's situation is even tougher to swallow given his age and inexperience. The 24-year-old was in the middle of his rookie campaign, working to a 4.82 ERA across 84 big league innings, when right forearm tightness sent him to the injured list just days before the diagnosis came down. For a young arm still establishing himself at the big league level, a lost season-plus is a brutal setback.
Both guys are reportedly getting operated on back-to-back, which says something about how quickly this all unfolded — one week they're pitching, the next they're both under the knife. Tommy John recovery timelines typically run 12-14 months for pitchers to get back to game action, which lines up with the report that neither is expected to be fully right until sometime in 2028 realistically, though the club is bracing for both to miss all of 2027.
For a Royals staff already trying to piece things together on the fly, losing two rotation/bullpen options at once forces some quick roster math. Expect Kansas City to lean harder on their upper-level pitching depth the rest of the way, and don't be shocked if this accelerates a trade-deadline look at bullpen help if the front office decides the internal options aren't enough to cover the gap.