Two programs trying to prove last year was a blip collide in Reno, and one of them has a real shot at getting back to respectable.
Bush’s Picks
AFNEV
AFNEV
OverUnder
Best BetAir Force
Air Force brings more established pieces into this one — a linebacker corps that stuck around and a quarterback with real dual-threat upside once he's back to full go. Nevada's still searching for stability after another offseason of coordinator turnover and a secondary rebuilt from scratch. Until the Wolf Pack shows something different on tape, backing the road team here makes more sense than betting on home comfort alone.
Air Force
+Szarka flashed dual-threat star potential before injury
+New Air Raid-influenced coordinator could open passing game
−Choate just 6-19, 2-13 in league play
−Secondary loses all five starters for 2nd straight year
−Offense has scored under 20 points a game for 4 years
Everything about Air Force's 2026 hinges on one name: Liam Szarka. The junior was flashing dual-threat star quality before a season-ending arm fracture in Week 12 last year, and how much he's got back by late September will decide whether the Falcons' offense looks like the ground-and-pound unit that ranked top-3 nationally in rushing or a shell of it. Nevada's own passing game has been such a mess the last four years that whoever lines up under center for the Wolf Pack barely moves the needle by comparison.
Air Force's issues run deeper than the quarterback room. The entire starting defensive front has to be replaced, and the receivers who made Szarka look good — Cade Harris, Bruin Flieschmann, Quin Smith — are all gone. The one thing holding the defense together is a linebacker trio in Blake Fletcher, Dallas Daley and Isaac Hubert that's as good as anything in the Mountain West, plus a secondary that's actually stuck around for once.
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AF Air Force
NEV Nevada
Nevada's whole season gets framed around Jeff Choate, who's 6-19 with a 2-13 league mark through two years and got a new five-year deal anyway because buying him out wasn't worth it. He's calling 2026 a 'hump year,' and for good reason — his offensive staff got rebuilt again around a first-year coordinator running an Air Raid-style scheme, while the defense loses all five starters in the secondary for the second straight offseason.
Air Force Falcons
Sep 12?vs North Dakota State—
Sep 5?vs Duquesne—
Nevada Wolf Pack
Sep 19?@ Middle Tennessee—
Sep 12?vs Montana State—
Sep 5?vs Western Kentucky—
Recent form.
The one thing Nevada has going for it that it didn't the last two offseasons is talent retention — the Wolf Pack actually held onto its best players this time instead of watching them walk in the portal. Returning tackles Jack Foster and Zach Cochnauer, plus guard Snoop Leota-Amaama, give the run game a real foundation, which matters when the passing attack has produced more interceptions than touchdowns since 2022.
Air Force Falcons
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Nevada Wolf Pack
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Air Force's program has a track record of snapping back fast after down years, and a watered-down Mountain West gives Calhoun's group a softer path than usual if the defense can just hold serve while Szarka gets back to full speed. Nevada, playing at home in front of a fan base that's watched three-win seasons pile up, needs signs of life on offense more than it needs a moral victory.
This one's a measuring-stick game for both sides more than a marquee matchup — but for fans of either program, it's an early read on whether 2026 is actually different.
