Northern Illinois throws its first Mountain West punch on homecoming, and Air Force shows up looking to snap a 2-year funk that's foreign territory for Troy Calhoun's program.
Bush’s Picks
AFNIU
AFNIU
OverUnder
Best BetAir Force
Air Force enters as the far more battle-tested program, with a rushing attack that finished top-3 nationally last year and a roster that isn't replacing its best defender the way NIU is. The Huskies are also debuting in a tougher conference under an interim staff, exactly the kind of transition spot that trips teams up early. Take the Falcons to win outright here.
Air Force
+Liam Szarka emerging as dual-threat rushing weapon
+Top-3 national rushing attack returns intact
+Linebacker corps led by all-conference Blake Fletcher
−Coming off back-to-back losing seasons under Troy Calhoun
−Defense let opponents convert over half of third downs
−Road trip into Huskies' homecoming crowd
Northern Illinois
+Rob Harley's defense ranked among MAC's better pass units
+Debuting in Mountain West on home turf for homecoming
+Nothing-to-lose spot as clear underdog in new league
−Coming off 3-9 season with offense that stalled
−Losing top tackler Quinn Urwiler off the defense
−Program in flux after Hammock's abrupt exit to NFL
This one kicks off Saturday, October 10 as NIU's opening act in its new league, and the quarterback pictures on each sideline couldn't look more different. Air Force is leaning on junior Liam Szarka, who paced the Mountain West with 13 rushing touchdowns a year ago and added 9 through the air — the dual-threat engine the option offense has been missing. Across the field, NIU is still sorting itself out after a 3-9 season where the offense never found its footing, and the Huskies are doing it all under interim head coach Rob Harley, promoted in February when Thomas Hammock left for an NFL job with the Seahawks.
Harley's background is defense — he ran one of the MAC's better pass units last year — so don't be shocked if this turns into a game where NIU tries to slow the pace and make Air Force earn every first down. That's a tough ask against a team built to eat clock; the Falcons ranked top-3 nationally in rushing and near the top in time of possession last season, even while everything else was falling apart. The bigger problem for the Huskies is replacing linebacker Quinn Urwiler, who racked up 141 tackles and led the country in solo stops — a serious hole for a defense trying to bottle up an option attack.
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Add in the fact that NIU is jumping from the MAC into a deeper, more physical Mountain West with almost no margin for error, and this reads like exactly the kind of spot Air Force has feasted on for years. The Falcons aren't without questions of their own — this is a program that hasn't sniffed a bowl game in 2 seasons — but they're not walking into hostile territory nearly as shorthanded as the home team.
Air Force Falcons
Oct 3?vs Navy—
Sep 25?@ Nevada—
Sep 12?vs North Dakota State—
Sep 5?vs Duquesne—
Northern Illinois Huskies
Sep 25?@ Georgia State—
Sep 19?@ Arizona—
Sep 12?vs Illinois State—
Sep 5?@ Iowa—
Recent form.
None of that guarantees anything. Air Force's defense was one of the worst in the country on third down last year, letting opponents convert over half their chances, and an offense that can't get off the field eventually costs you close games. Blake Fletcher and the linebacker room are supposed to be the fix, but that unit has to prove it against a Huskies group that, on paper, is thinner than teams Air Force has struggled to slow down recently.
Air Force Falcons
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Northern Illinois Huskies
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Still, homecoming atmosphere aside, NIU is starting from behind — new coach, new conference, and a roster replacing its best defender — while Air Force just needs its option game to look like it did down the stretch last season. This has sleeper-interest written on it more than statement-game, but for two programs at very different points, Saturday, October 10 tells us plenty about where each is headed.
