Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies

Oct 10, 20266:30 PM CTCBSSNDekalb, IL
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Air Force heads to DeKalb at 3-1 after outlasting Navy, and Northern Illinois is still looking for its first win. A Saturday night at Huskie Stadium against a service academy is about as good a chance as NIU will get to fix that.

Week 6 · 10/10, 6:30 PM CTCBSSN
Kickoff66°

Air Force goes to DeKalb at 3-1, fresh off a 14-9 win over Navy, to face a Northern Illinois team that is 0-4 and has lost 3 of those games by 21 or more. The game depends on whether NIU's passing game, led by Taron Dickens, can keep pace while its defense handles the option with a week of extra preparation. No betting lines have been posted yet.

Air Force Falcons
  • Held Navy to 9 points in its latest win
  • Has won 3 of 4, including a road win at Nevada
  • Option attack tests a defense that has struggled all year
  • Allowed 38 and 33 in back-to-back games
  • Receiver J. Dawson's status still unclear
  • Offense managed only 14 points against Navy
Northern Illinois Huskies
  • Dickens threw for 320 yards at Georgia State
  • Extra preparation time for the option after the open date
  • Played Illinois State within 4 at home

Saturday, October 10 is the Falcons' first game since a 14-9 win over Navy in which neither offense got much done, and they've now won 2 straight. Air Force has also shown it can score. It put up 34 on Duquesne, 32 in a loss to North Dakota State, and 36 to edge Nevada on the road. Its defense allowed 38 and 33 in back-to-back games against the Bison and the Wolf Pack, then held Navy to 9. Which version of that defense shows up in DeKalb is the question that decides this one.

Northern Illinois is 0-4, and the losses have come in different ways. The Huskies were shut out 40-0 at Iowa, lost a 28-24 coin flip at home to Illinois State, and were beaten by 25 at Arizona and by 21 at Georgia State. The Georgia State loss went wrong right away: NIU fumbled the opening kickoff and never recovered. The passing game did give them something. Junior quarterback Taron Dickens went 28-of-42 for 320 yards and a touchdown in that loss. If NIU has a path in this game, it runs through Dickens' arm.

Air Force is a matchup problem for any team, and especially for a winless one. The service-academy style shortens games and wears down front sevens, and it punishes defenses that miss assignments. NIU last played on September 26 in Atlanta, so it has had extra time to prepare for the option. That's the best thing the Huskies have going for them on paper, and they need every bit of it.

10/03WvsNavy14-9
09/27W@Nevada36-33
09/13LvsNorth Dakota State32-38
09/05WvsDuquesne34-0
09/26L@Georgia State14-35
09/20L@Arizona17-42
09/12LvsIllinois State24-28
09/05L@#20 Iowa0-40

The Falcons have one name on their injury report: wide receiver J. Dawson, listed out with an undisclosed injury before the Nevada game. No update has come since, so his status for DeKalb is unclear. In an offense like Air Force's, one missing receiver matters less than it would almost anywhere else. NIU's report is clean. That means the Huskies have no injury excuse for the start they've had.

The forecast looks good for football: 71 degrees, clear skies, light wind. The weather won't help either side. Air Force's season has been mostly close games: a 3-point win at Nevada, a 6-point loss to North Dakota State and a 5-point win over Navy. It knows how to finish games like that. NIU has lost 3 of its 4 by 21 or more and hasn't shown it can stay in a game into the fourth quarter. If the Huskies keep it within a score into the second half, they'll have a real shot. If they don't, this will feel like another long September for NIU, even though it's October now.

Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies — Air Force Brings Its Momentum to DeKalb Against Winless Northern Illinois | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush