Who is favored in Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs?

Alabama Crimson Tide is favored on the moneyline.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

·Oct 3, 2026·11:00 AM CT·Starkville, MS

By JR·2 min read

#7 Alabama(4-0)

#16 Mississippi State(4-0)

11:00 AM

TLDR: Alabama has spent September scoring at will. On Saturday, October 3, the Crimson Tide go to Davis Wade Stadium to face a Mississippi State team that finally has an offense worth taking seriously, and a coach who needed this kind of start.

Week 5 · SAT OCT 3, 11:00 AM CT

#7 Alabama

(4-0)

WWWW

#16 Mississippi State

(4-0)

WWWW

Kickoff86°

Alabama brings an offense that has scored 45 or more in every game to Starkville to face a Mississippi State team whose offense has taken a big step under Kamario Taylor, with Jeff Lebby's 3rd season looking up. The main question is whether Zach Arnett's rebuilt Bulldogs defense can slow Keelon Russell, and whether Alabama's defense, which gave up 36 to Florida State, holds up against a fast offense. A possible rain forecast for the early kickoff is the wild card.

Alabama Crimson Tide

45-plus points in all 4 games
Russell already a national player of the week
Full week off a 49-18 South Carolina win
Gave up 36 to Florida State at home
Early kickoff in a hostile road stadium

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Taylor: 354 yards, 5 total TDs vs ULM
School-record 762 yards shows the offense's ceiling
Big numbers came against ULM, not SEC speed
Arnett's defense is new and hasn't faced an offense like this

This one comes down to the quarterbacks. Keelon Russell is running the Alabama offense in Kalen DeBoer's 3rd year, and he has already been named the Shaun Alexander Award Player of the Week. The Tide have put up 48 on East Carolina, 45 at Kentucky, 50 on Florida State and 49 on South Carolina. Mississippi State counters with Kamario Taylor, who threw for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns against ULM and ran for 59 more yards and another score. That was the day the Bulldogs set a school record with 762 yards of total offense.

The more useful Alabama number is on the other side of the ball. Florida State hung 36 on the Tide in Tuscaloosa. It's the only time this season anyone has made Alabama's defense look ordinary, and it happened against a team willing to trade punches. Mississippi State's offense is built to make that same trade. Alabama goes into Starkville with no games in between. They come in off a 49-18 win over South Carolina with a full week to prepare, and the board has them as road favorites without laying a huge number.

For Mississippi State, the context goes beyond Saturday. Jeff Lebby is in his 3rd season and hadn't had a winning year in Starkville before this one. That's why his seat was a talking point all offseason. He fired defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler after 2025 and brought in Zach Arnett, who knows this building from his own time as the Bulldogs' head coach. The Bulldogs were 3-0 as of September 20. Taking down Alabama at home would change how the whole program is talked about.

On paper this is Arnett's rebuilt defense against an Alabama offense that has cleared 45 points in all 4 games. ULM, the team Mississippi State ran up 762 yards on, doesn't tell you much about what Taylor can do against SEC speed. Russell hasn't had a defense slow him down yet either. Whichever quarterback has to play from behind will find out the most about his offense.

Weather could be a factor for an early kickoff on ABC. The early forecast calls for 84 degrees, clouds, a light 8 mph wind and close to a 50/50 chance of rain. Both teams want to play fast, and a wet Davis Wade could slow that down more than anything on the scouting report. This is the first game on both schedules, so the board should open soon. Until then, it's the Bulldogs' best shot at a statement win this fall and a test for Alabama on the road.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

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