None of that history helps Alabama State against this particular opponent, though. Troy is 6-0 all-time in the series and has beaten the Hornets by an average of roughly 28 points, including a 62-19 rout in 2000. That kind of lopsided track record is exactly why oddsmakers and bettors will lean Troy here even with Alabama State playing the best football in program history.
Troy's case for a repeat division title took a hit this offseason when leading receiver Tray Taylor left for the transfer portal, along with a handful of other pass-catchers. The Trojans still return a quarterback tandem with nearly 4,000 combined passing yards and 6 experienced offensive linemen, so the pieces are there, but the passing game will need new answers on the perimeter early in the year.
For Alabama State, this is the kind of test that either validates last year's breakout or exposes the gap between SWAC and Sun Belt-caliber competition. Body and an offense that carried the Hornets to 10 wins will have to prove it travels against a Troy defense that's used to playing meaningful November football. A road win here would be the loudest statement an HBCU program could make in Week 2.
Troy also has to be careful not to look ahead. The Trojans follow this game with trips to Missouri and Utah State, so there's real incentive to handle business early and stay sharp rather than sleepwalk through a program that's suddenly a lot more dangerous than its recent history against Troy suggests.