Two teams that played for a Big 12 championship a year ago meet again in Lubbock, except this time Texas Tech doesn't know who's throwing the ball.
Bush’s Picks
ARIZTTU
ARIZTTU
OverUnder
Best BetTexas Tech
Texas Tech at home is still the more talented, deeper roster top to bottom even with a first-time starter at quarterback, and that program momentum from a Big 12 title run doesn't just vanish. Arizona's path to the upset runs almost entirely through Fifita outplaying an unproven Hammond, which is realistic but not the way to bet against a home favorite of this caliber. Lean Red Raiders to get the win, with real respect for the road side's ceiling.
Arizona
+Noah Fifita returning, set single-season TD record
+9-4 breakout season, best 2nd-year coach turnaround
−Losing 13 starters from Holiday Bowl roster
−Historically 5-27-2 all-time vs Texas Tech
Texas Tech
+Defending Big 12 champs, all 2025 wins by 20+
+Top-5 transfer class again, picked by most media to repeat
−Lost prized portal QB Sorsby to gambling scandal fallout
−Unproven Will Hammond replacing veteran Behren Morton
This is the kind of late-October matchup that would've been circled on every Big 12 fan's calendar back in December. Texas Tech steamrolled its way to a 12-2 season and the program's first-ever conference title, while Arizona quietly put together a 9-4 turnaround under Brent Brennan that ranks among the best second-year jumps in school history. Both sides are walking back into 2026 with real expectations, and this is one of the marquee games on either schedule.
The headline for Arizona is that Noah Fifita is back. He threw for 3,228 yards and 29 touchdowns last season and publicly committed to returning for his senior year instead of testing the draft, which alone keeps the Wildcats in the Big 12 conversation. Texas Tech's offseason went the opposite direction — the Red Raiders paid big money to bring in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby, only to see that deal collapse in June after a gambling investigation tied to his time at Indiana. Sorsby never suited up for Tech, leaving sophomore Will Hammond as the presumptive starter walking into a season where the Red Raiders were still tabbed by a huge chunk of Big 12 media as the team to beat.
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ARIZ Arizona
TTU Texas Tech
Arizona also has holes to fill. The Wildcats lose 13 players who started in their Holiday Bowl loss to SMU, including multiple defensive backs, and Brennan's staff has been working the portal hard at tight end, offensive line, receiver and secondary to plug those gaps. Tech, for its part, is replacing NFL departures David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez on defense — losses that mattered on a unit that helped Tech win every single game last year by 20 points or more, one of the more dominant regular seasons a Big 12 team has produced.
Arizona Wildcats
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Texas Tech Red Raiders
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Arizona Wildcats
Oct 9?@ West Virginia—
Oct 2?vs Cincinnati—
Sep 26?@ Washington State—
Sep 19?vs Northern Illinois—
Sep 12?@ BYU—
Sep 5?vs Northern Arizona—
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Oct 16?vs Arizona State—
Oct 2?@ Colorado—
Sep 25?vs Sam Houston—
Sep 18?vs Houston—
Sep 12?@ Oregon State—
Sep 5?vs Abilene Christian—
Recent form.
History leans hard toward the home team here — Texas Tech owns the all-time series 27-5-2 and beat Arizona 28-22 in Lubbock the last time these two met in 2024. But last year's Tech team that blitzed BYU 34-7 in the conference title game and rolled into a first-round CFP bye doesn't look quite like this year's version on paper, at least until Hammond proves himself over a full season. If Fifita's Arizona offense is clicking by the time this one rolls around, a rivalry that's mostly been one-sided could look a lot different.
It's also worth remembering how differently these programs ended their seasons. Tech's dominant campaign closed with a 23-0 shutout loss to Oregon in the Orange Bowl, a reminder that the margins tighten fast against elite competition. Arizona's Holiday Bowl loss to SMU was a four-point game decided late. Neither result rewrites what either team is, but they're both data points worth keeping in mind heading into a game between two teams that spent last December believing they belonged on a bigger stage.
