The common opponent tells you a lot. Arizona held Cincinnati to 7 points in a 34-7 home win. Last Saturday that same Cincinnati team scored 37 on Texas Tech, with Cole Tabb running for a career-high 173 yards and JC French IV throwing 4 touchdowns. That doesn't make Arizona the better team. It does mean the Wildcats won't be scared of a defense that just gave up 21 points in one quarter.
Arizona's defense is the story of this run. Iowa State managed 221 total yards, switched quarterbacks at halftime and got 36 yards from Aidan Flora, the Big 12's 2nd-leading rusher. Texas Tech's offense doesn't usually stall the way it did in Cincinnati. Before that game it scored 53 on Arizona State and 49 on Sam Houston, and it won all 3 of its home games in the last-5 window, including a 28-26 escape against Houston.
Arizona has health questions of its own. WR T. Spivey and S D. Austin are both done for the season, and WR G. Richardson (hamstring) and TE C. Rusk (leg) have been questionable for weeks. With Fifita completing nearly 80% of his throws, the questions are how many of his targets suit up and whether a secondary without Austin can handle a Texas Tech passing game that's down a receiver itself.
The 11 AM kickoff on Halloween should be pleasant: mid-60s, partly cloudy, light wind. The weather won't matter much. What matters is whether Texas Tech's mistakes at Cincinnati were a one-game slip or a sign of something wrong, and whether Arizona's streak holds up on the road against a top-10 team. Arizona's 5 wins in this window came against Northern Illinois, Washington State, Cincinnati, West Virginia and Iowa State. None of those teams is ranked.