BYU spent all of last season proving it belongs among the Big 12's best. Now it has to prove it again against the one team that's already beaten it.
Bush’s Picks
ASUBYU
ASUBYU
OverUnder
Best BetBYU
BYU brings a returning starting quarterback and a program riding real momentum into a home game, while ASU is still sorting out who even takes the first snap. That gap in continuity is the whole ballgame here, and it favors the Cougars even before accounting for the crowd in Provo.
Arizona State
+Beat BYU 28-23 in their only prior meeting
+Aggressive portal reload with 16 Power Conference transfers
+Dillingham publicly optimistic despite the turnover
−Only 11 of 34 regulars with 200+ snaps return
−Four-man QB competition unresolved heading into fall
−Some books have ASU's win total at just 6.5
BYU
+Coming off 12-2 season, Big 12 title game berth
+Bachmeier returns with a full year of starts
+Sitake retained, kept continuity over outside interest
−New defensive coordinator unproven in the role
−Lost the Big 12 title game two years running
−External expectations now much higher, adds pressure
This one's a rematch nobody outside the league was thinking about a year ago. ASU and BYU didn't play a single down against each other between 1977 and their Big 12 reunion, and the first meeting in 2024 went to the Sun Devils, 28-23, in Tempe. Bear Bachmeier and a mostly rebuilt Sun Devils roster get the do-over, this time in Provo.
BYU is walking in as the trendier team nationally after a 12-2 season that ended with a Big 12 Championship Game appearance and a No. 11 final ranking, the program's best finish since 2020. Bachmeier returns with a full year of starts under him, and Kalani Sitake fended off outside interest to stay in Provo and keep building. Arizona State, meanwhile, is answering questions instead of asking them: Kenny Dillingham is sorting through a four-man quarterback competition after losing the bulk of last year's snap-count leaders to the portal and graduation.
Show fees
11:00 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
ASU Arizona State
BYU BYU
The roster math favors continuity, and BYU has more of it. ASU brought in 25 transfers, 16 from Power Conference programs, which is either a full reload or a chemistry experiment depending on how October looks. Books already have the Sun Devils' win total sitting around 6.5, a sign the market isn't fully buying the turnover just yet, even with Dillingham publicly optimistic about the new faces.
BYU's own question mark sits on the other side of the ball. Kelly Poppinga steps into his first year as defensive coordinator after being promoted from special teams, and how that unit holds together will say a lot about whether BYU can finally get over the hump instead of losing another title game.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Oct 16?@ Texas Tech—
Oct 9?vs Hawai'i—
Oct 2?vs Baylor—
Sep 19?@ Kansas—
Sep 12?@ Texas A&M—
Sep 5?vs Morgan State—
BYU Cougars
Oct 16?vs Notre Dame—
Oct 9?vs Iowa State—
Oct 2?@ TCU—
Sep 19?@ Colorado State—
Sep 12?vs Arizona—
Sep 5?vs Utah Tech—
Recent form.
There's also a psychological layer here. BYU has dropped back-to-back Big 12 Championship Games and come up short of the CFP both times, so the pressure to close is real even with the roster largely intact. ASU has already shown it can beat this exact opponent, and Cam Skattebo's absence aside, Dillingham's program has built a habit of finding ways to win ugly.
Arizona State Sun Devils
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
BYU Cougars
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
With this deep into the offseason, don't expect either program's depth chart to be fully settled by the time Friday, October 30 rolls around. But the shape of the matchup is already clear: a BYU team trying to validate a breakout year at home against an Arizona State team betting its transfer haul comes together faster than anyone expects.
