TLDR: Two 5-4 Big 12 teams, each sitting at 3-3 in conference play, and only one of them leaves the Bounce House on Saturday with a sixth win and a bowl ticket. Arizona State is coming off a game its defense controlled. UCF needed a touchdown with 4 seconds left at Kansas.
Arizona State and UCF are both 5-4 and 3-3 in the Big 12, so the winner reaches 6 wins and bowl eligibility. The Sun Devils won their last game on defense, holding Colorado to 103 first-half yards, but they've lost both recent road games. UCF won at Kansas on Alonza Barnett III's touchdown pass with 4 seconds left after blowing a 26-7 lead. The game probably turns on whether ASU's defense travels and which UCF team shows up at home: the one that beat BYU or the one Baylor beat 41-9.
+Barnett: 251 yards, 2 TD, game-winning drive at Kansas
+Derry posted 8-143 at Kansas
+Beat BYU 39-31 at home
−Blew 26-7 lead, allowed 25 unanswered
−Lost 41-9 at home to Baylor
−Had lost 12 straight on the road before Kansas
Start with the quarterbacks, because both of them had a moment last week. Jake Fette threw a touchdown and caught one in Arizona State's 20-10 win over Colorado, and ESPN noted that no Sun Devils quarterback had done both in the same game in 30 years. On the other side, Alonza Barnett III went 18-of-31 for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns at Kansas. The last of those finished a 73-yard drive that started with 1:06 left, and he found Caden Piening from 6 yards out to win it 33-32.
Look closely at that UCF win, though, because it was nearly a disaster. The Knights led 26-7 early in the third quarter, then gave up 25 unanswered points before Barnett's final drive saved them. It also ended a 12-game road losing streak. Josh Derry was the steady piece, with 8 catches for 143 yards and his 11th career 100-yard receiving game. Taevion Swint and Duane Thomas Jr. each ran for a touchdown. UCF's postgame notes listed no new injuries. Saturday's game is back home, where the board has the Knights as a short favorite.
Home has been mixed for UCF lately. The Knights beat BYU 39-31 in Orlando, then lost 41-9 to Baylor on the same field. Those are 2 very different teams, and that range is the real question about UCF. Arizona State has gone the other way. The Sun Devils are 3-0 at home and 0-2 on the road over their last 5, and the road losses were a 53-25 beating at Texas Tech and a 27-20 loss at BYU.
Arizona State's defense is the part that travels best on paper. Colorado had 103 total yards in the first half and didn't pick up a first down until about 7 minutes were left in the second quarter. Kansas State managed 17 in Tempe the game before that. If that group shows up in Orlando, it puts real pressure on a UCF offense that went quiet for most of a half at Kansas.
The early forecast for Orlando is clear and 63 degrees with a 12 mph wind, which shouldn't get in anyone's way. The stakes are simple: both teams are 5-4, both are 3-3 in the Big 12, and a win gets either one bowl eligible with games still to play. A loss pushes that question into the final weeks.
