Arkansas State Red Wolves at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Nov 14, 202612:00 PM CTESPN+Conway, SC
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Two Sun Belt teams coming off ugly losses meet in Conway on Saturday, November 14. Both have been handing the ball away, and the team that stops doing it first probably wins.

SAT 11/14, 12:00 PM CT · Week 11ESPN+
Kickoff 56°10 mph

Arkansas State (4-5) visits Coastal Carolina (3-6) a week after both lost at home: the Red Wolves gave up a halftime lead to 2-7 UL Monroe, and the Chanticleers turned it over 6 times against Old Dominion. Both teams are 2-3 in the Sun Belt and have played mostly one-score games. This looks like a game decided by turnovers, with Trey Owens's 2-interception day on one side and Coastal's fumbles on the other. No lines have posted yet.

Arkansas State Red Wolves
  • Trey Owens dangerous as a runner, 67 yards on 10 carries
  • Has already won a one-score game against Georgia State
  • Still has a realistic path to 6 wins
  • Owens threw 2 interceptions against UL Monroe
  • Gave up a halftime lead to 2-7 ULM
  • Managed only a field goal after halftime last time out
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
  • Defense shut out ODU in the second half
  • Home field at Brooks Stadium
  • Already won a close road game at Marshall

Both teams lost on November 7. Arkansas State had a 14-10 halftime lead at home against UL Monroe, a 2-7 team, and lost it 19-17. Coastal Carolina had 6 turnovers against Old Dominion on homecoming and lost 21-8. Arkansas State is 4-5 and Coastal is 3-6, so the Red Wolves still have a realistic route to a 6-win season. Coastal has almost no room left.

For Arkansas State, it starts with Trey Owens. Against UL Monroe he went 16-for-29 for 193 yards with a touchdown to Summers. He also led the team in rushing with 67 yards on 10 carries, and he threw 2 interceptions. The Red Wolves scored a single field goal after halftime while ULM's Austin Carlisle ran for 111 yards and Aidan Armenta scored twice on the ground. When the quarterback is also your best runner, you're relying a lot on 1 player.

Coastal's loss was mostly about giveaways. Mario Thompson returned a Deuce Bailey fumble 42 yards for a touchdown that put ODU up 14-0 in the first quarter. After that the Chanticleers' defense shut the Monarchs out in the second half and added a safety in the 4th quarter. A defense that holds a team scoreless for 30 minutes is worth something. An offense that scores 8 points at home isn't.

11/07LvsUL Monroe17-19
10/24WvsGeorgia State38-32
10/17W@Southern Miss23-13
10/08LvsSouth Alabama49-56
10/04L@Louisiana20-23
11/07LvsOld Dominion8-21
10/31W@Georgia State31-20
10/17LvsApp State32-35
10/10W@Marshall27-21
10/03LvsGeorgia Southern24-31

Look past the last game and these teams are pretty similar. Each won 2 of its last 5 and each is 2-3 in the Sun Belt. Both have played plenty of close games. Arkansas State lost 23-20 at Louisiana, lost a 56-49 shootout to South Alabama and beat Georgia State 38-32. Coastal beat Marshall 27-21 on the road and lost 35-32 to App State at home. Both teams also beat Georgia State. Neither has pulled away from anybody, so expect this to be close late.

The forecast for Conway is 51 degrees and clear, with winds around 14 mph. That probably won't stop either offense, but it could matter on deep passes and field goals. Both teams have been kicking field goals in the 4th quarter. The board has no spread, moneyline or total yet. For now the questions are simple: does Owens keep turning it over, and does Coastal stop putting the ball on the ground?

Free Picks
Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Nov. 14) — Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina Meet With Little Margin Left