The early board has Louisiana as a modest home favorite, a little more than a field goal. That's a fair reflection of a team at home against a visitor that has shown 2 very different versions of itself in the first month. It says the market sees this as a real game, not a mismatch.
The Red Wolves' big question is which offense shows up. It hung 52 on West Georgia, then scored 7 at TCU, and that week-to-week swing is the main thing to watch. The defense also gave up 42 in Memphis and 31 in Fort Worth. Neither of those teams plays like a Sun Belt opponent, but a Louisiana team that just played USC won't be scared of a road trip to anyone's stadium.
Then there's the weather. The early forecast for Lafayette calls for 82 degrees, light rain, a 67% chance of precipitation and a 12 mph wind. It's still 6 days out, so that can change a lot before kickoff. If it holds, expect a wet ball, shorter passing plays and a game decided on the ground and in the kicking game. That tends to help whichever team handles the conditions better, not the one with the flashier offense.
The picks aren't posted for this one yet. What we know now is that both teams are unranked, both have finished their nonconference slates, and one of them leaves Lafayette with an early lead in the Sun Belt race. For Louisiana, the long September travel is over. For Arkansas State, the job is simpler: be the team that beat West Georgia, not the one that scored 7 at TCU.