TCU hosts Arkansas State in a non-conference tune-up that looks lopsided on paper but comes loaded with question marks for the home team.
Bush’s Picks
ARSTTCU
ARSTTCU
OverUnder
Best BetTCU
TCU's talent gap and home-field advantage make the Horned Frogs the clear side to back here, even with a first-time starter under center. Arkansas State's own quarterback change adds real variance to their side of the equation too, and in a coin-flip-on-experience situation, the roster advantage should win out for the Frogs.
Arkansas State
+Butch Jones has program trending up, 3 straight bowls
+Athlon projects Sun Belt West runner-up
+League-high 7 Preseason All-Sun Belt picks
−Replacing a nearly 9,800-yard starting QB
−Four-way camp battle means unproven starter
−Facing a deeper, Power 4 roster on the road
TCU
+9-4 season capped by Alamo Bowl win over USC
+Sonny Dykes just extended, program stability
+Harvard transfer QB has elite college production
−New starting QB unproven vs Big 12-level competition
−Lost 3 defenders to NFL Draft, including tackle-leading LBs
−Offense retooling toward a slower, run-first scheme
This one's a classic Power 4 vs. Group of 5 scheduling mismatch on paper, but TCU enters Saturday, September 19 with more uncertainty than a home favorite usually carries. The Horned Frogs went 9-4 last season, capped it with a 30-27 Alamo Bowl win over USC, and finished ranked 25th nationally. Sonny Dykes just got a contract extension off that run. But the engine behind that offense, quarterback Josh Hoover, is gone to Indiana, and TCU heads into 2026 auditioning a new starter under center.
The presumptive answer is Harvard transfer Jaden Craig, the Ivy League's all-time leading passer with 6,074 career yards and 52 touchdowns, who put up 2,869 yards and 25 scores in 2025 alone. That's a serious resume for the level he played at, but he's never taken a snap against Big 12 competition, and new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis is reportedly pushing the offense toward a run-heavier, slower-tempo approach after TCU turned the ball over 20 times last year. A game like this against Arkansas State is exactly the kind of low-pressure environment a program wants for that combination to work out its kinks.
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ARST Arkansas State
TCU TCU
Arkansas State isn't just a body on the schedule, either. Butch Jones has the Red Wolves trending up, three straight bowl trips and a 21-18 record over that stretch, and Athlon projects them as Sun Belt West runner-up behind Troy this year. The program also landed a league-high seven players on the Preseason All-Sun Belt first team. Like TCU, though, Arkansas State is replacing serious production at quarterback: dual-threat starter Jaylen Raynor, who threw for nearly 9,800 career yards, left for Iowa State, and camp is a four-way battle featuring Texas transfer Trey Owens as the presumed favorite.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Sep 12?vs West Georgia—
Sep 5?@ Memphis—
TCU Horned Frogs
Sep 12?vs Grambling—
Aug 29?vs North Carolina—
Recent form.
TCU's defense took real hits in the draft, losing Bud Clark, Kaleb Elarms-Orr, and Namdi Obiazor, a linebacker duo alone that combined for 228 tackles, 6 sacks, and 15 tackles for loss last season. Arkansas State countered its own losses by adding portal safeties Makai Shahid, who racked up 125 tackles over two years at Youngstown State, and Five Hamilton from Kennesaw State. Neither defense is walking in at full strength, which could matter if either new quarterback needs a few weeks to settle in.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
TCU Horned Frogs
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Preseason power rankings still have TCU projected around 8-4 in the Big 12, and this early-slate matchup functions as a proving ground more than a statement game. For Arkansas State, a competitive showing on the road against a ranked-caliber program would be exactly the kind of data point that validates the Athlon hype. Both fan bases will be watching the same thing though: which new quarterback looks more ready for primetime.
