Neither team has had an easy week lately. Army's last 2 wins came by 3 points each: 20-17 over Tulane at home, then Dawson Jones's 50-yard field goal on the final play at Tulsa. Those came after a 31-29 loss at Louisiana Tech. The 56-24 win over Florida Atlantic is the only time in the last 5 that Army had room to breathe. This is a team that grinds games down and dares you to make one more play than they do.
UT Martin45-21Memphis has the more lopsided résumé: 45-21 over UT Martin, 59-8 at Charlotte, 38-13 over UAB. Then the Tigers went to Tulane and lost 31-17, and against ECU they managed 3 points in the first half and fell behind by 2 scores in the second. Then they flipped a switch and scored 38 after halftime. Ellis Ellis Jr.'s interception ended it in overtime, and the win made Memphis bowl eligible for the 13th straight season.
Tulane is the shared opponent, and it cuts Army's way. The Green Wave beat Memphis by 14 on their own field. A week earlier, Army beat Tulane by 3 at home. One common opponent doesn't settle anything, but it says Army can handle the top of this conference in a close game. Memphis hasn't shown that yet.
The concern on Army's side is the defense. Tulsa scored 35 and Baylor Hayes threw for 262 yards with 2 touchdowns, and Louisiana Tech put up 31 2 weeks before that. A passer who just accounted for 5 touchdowns is the wrong guy to see next. Army's answer is the clock. Every long drive Nwawuihe and Hellums put together is a possession Stokes doesn't get. The weather won't interfere: the forecast in Memphis is 74 and cloudy with 4 mph wind.
So the matchup comes down to whether Army's ground game can keep Stokes off the field and turn this into another game decided in the last few minutes, or whether Memphis plays a full 60 minutes like it did in its first 3 games of this stretch. Army has won those close games lately. Memphis has spent the last 2 weeks showing how much it can let a game get away before it pulls it back.