Ball State is coming off a much wider swing. A week after Ohio State ran the Cardinals off the field in Columbus, quarterback Keldric Luster threw 3 touchdown passes in the first half alone of a 41-17 win over Stony Brook back home in Muncie. That's a very different team than the one that showed up in the Horseshoe, and it's part of why oddsmakers aren't treating this as a total mismatch despite the gap in conference affiliation.
None of that resolves the actual question hanging over Williams Stadium: which version of each team shows up. Liberty's transfer-portal additions, including skill players pulled in from Florida State and Duke, give Chadwell more speed than Ball State's defense saw from Stony Brook. Whether that shows up depends largely on which quarterback is throwing to them, and Liberty hasn't said.
Liberty still has Coastal Carolina on deck the following week before Conference USA play opens in October, which raises the stakes on padding the resume now rather than scrambling for a signature nonconference win later. The Flames also have last week's loss to James Madison in the rivalry opener sitting on the ledger, a reminder that this roster hasn't yet strung together two clean performances.
For Ball State, Saturday is less about the scoreboard than about which readout of this team is real. A 56-3 loss to a College Football Playoff-caliber Ohio State team tells you little on its own, but following it with a 3-touchdown half against Stony Brook at least argues the offense can function when the opponent is closer to its own level. A competitive showing at Liberty would back that up in a much tougher setting.