A 4-8 team meets an 0-12 team in the middle of the MAC, and somehow this one still has intrigue baked in.
Bush’s Picks
BALLMASS
BALLMASS
OverUnder
Best BetBall State
Ball State projects as the clearly better team on paper, with a 5.5-win outlook that dwarfs UMass's 3.5. The Cardinals still have real question marks at quarterback, but a roster that finished 4-8 with an infusion of 25 portal additions should be able to handle a UMass team that hasn't found competent quarterback play in over a year. Back Ball State to win outright here.
Ball State
+Projected 5.5 wins, far ahead of UMass's 3.5 outlook
+Returning playmakers in RB Horton, WR Thacker
+25 transfer portal additions across skill and defensive spots
−QB competition between Mizzell, Luster still unsettled
−Finished only 4-8 in Uremovich's first season
−CFN flags this exact matchup as a 50/50 toss-up
Massachusetts
+Landed Power 5 transfer QB Watson from Virginia Tech
+New OC Max Warner brings fresh offensive approach
+Nearly 30 newcomers infused into a rebuilding roster
−Coming off a winless 0-12 season, program-worst
−Lowest projected win total in the MAC at 3.5
−Harasymiak himself called last year's QB play 'atrocious'
Ball State heads east for a Tuesday night MAC game against a UMass program still searching for its first sign of life since rejoining the conference. Both teams are running back unsettled quarterback competitions into the fall, which makes this one of those games where the depth chart matters as much as the depth of talent. Ball State's Tyler Mizzell and Keldric Luster have been going back and forth all spring, while UMass brought in Virginia Tech transfer William 'Pop' Watson III to try to fix what head coach Joe Harasymiak bluntly called 'atrocious' quarterback play a year ago.
Neither roster looks anything like it did last November. Ball State brought in 25 transfer portal additions in Uremovich's second offseason, restocking the receiver room and the defensive front with players from FAU, Louisville, Wake Forest and Cincinnati. UMass matched that with roughly 30 newcomers of its own, including a new offensive coordinator in Max Warner, betting that fresh faces can turn a winless season into something resembling progress.
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BALL Ball State
MASS Massachusetts
None of that roster churn shows up in a betting line yet this far out, but it's the whole story of why oddsmakers already see this as one of Ball State's shakier road trips instead of a layup. A MAC team traveling to face a rebuilding host in prime time in November is exactly the kind of spot that looks better on paper than it plays on the field.
Ball State Cardinals
Oct 16?@ Bowling Green—
Oct 9?@ Northwestern—
Oct 2?vs Toledo—
Sep 25?@ Kent State—
Sep 19?@ Liberty—
Sep 12?vs Stony Brook—
Sep 5?@ Ohio State—
Massachusetts Minutemen
Oct 23?@ UConn—
Oct 16?@ Buffalo—
Oct 9?vs Miami (OH)—
Oct 2?vs Eastern Michigan—
Sep 25?@ Sacramento State—
Sep 19?vs Stonehill—
Sep 12?vs Sacred Heart—
Sep 3?@ Rutgers—
Recent form.
Ball State's floor is still higher than UMass's ceiling right now. Uremovich's first season ended at 4-8, but College Football News has the Cardinals projected for 5.5 wins in 2026 against just 3.5 for the Minutemen — the widest gap of expectations on either team's schedule. Returning back TJ Horton and receiver Isaiah Thacker give Ball State a floor of production UMass simply doesn't have after last year's collapse.
Ball State Cardinals
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Massachusetts Minutemen
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
UMass isn't just coming off 0-12 — it's coming off a season that didn't even flash competence at the position that decides these games. Watson's arrival from Virginia Tech is the kind of move that can change a program's floor overnight, but a transfer QB walking into a first-year system against a MAC road team that's spent all offseason retooling its own roster is still an unproven equation. If the Minutemen can't move the ball, this game gets away from them fast, no matter what November road fatigue does to Ball State.
This is a game defined by two coaches trying to prove their rebuilds are real, not by a rivalry or a race for a title. That's fine — sometimes the most watchable MAC games are the ones where you can actually see the roster turnover playing out in real time.
