Two Big 12 programs hit reset at quarterback this offseason, and the bill comes due in Tempe when Dave Aranda's rebuild meets Kenny Dillingham's deepest roster yet.
Bush’s Picks
BAYASU
BAYASU
OverUnder
Best BetArizona State
Arizona State gets the nod here mostly on continuity — Dillingham kept his full coaching staff and is fielding what's being called his deepest roster yet, while Baylor is trying to win games with a rebuilt receiver corps and a quarterback who's never taken a full-season workload at this level. Home field in Tempe against a program on its third losing season in four years is enough to lean Sun Devils.
Baylor
+DJ Lagway brings blue-chip arm talent, Texas roots
+OC Jake Spavital has strong history developing QBs
−5-7 finish in 2025, lost last 3 games
−Aranda has 3 losing seasons in last 4 years
−Lost 4 receivers and TE Trigg from 2025 roster
Arizona State
+Full coaching staff returns, program stability
+8-5 in 2025, losses to BYU/Houston were narrow
+Added top-5 portal WRs Miller and Harris
−Lost star WR Jordyn Tyson to NFL Draft
−New QB Boley hasn't locked down the job yet
−Offense has struggled before without prior year's starter
Both of these teams are starting over under center, just from very different positions. Baylor landed the biggest name in the portal when DJ Lagway, once the No. 1 quarterback prospect in the country, left Florida for Waco. Arizona State lost its guy the other direction, watching Sam Leavitt bolt for LSU, and now hands the keys to Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley, who enters preseason camp as the favorite for the job but hasn't locked it up yet.
The receiver rooms tell a similar story of turnover. ASU has to replace Jordyn Tyson, who left early for the NFL Draft after two monster seasons as the primary target, and did it by grabbing Omarion Miller and Reed Harris, two of the winter portal's best wideouts. Baylor's rebuild runs deeper — Kole Wilson, Josh Cameron, Kobe Prentice and Ashtyn Hawkins are all gone from the receiver room, along with tight end Michael Trigg, meaning Lagway will be throwing to a mostly new cast.
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BAY Baylor
ASU Arizona State
By the time this one kicks off on Friday, October 2, both rosters should have a clearer picture of who they actually are. ASU enters with more continuity everywhere else — Dillingham brought back his entire on-field staff, and scouts are calling this the deepest, most athletic group he's had in four seasons in Tempe. Baylor is betting that Lagway's arm talent alone can paper over a rebuilt roster.
Baylor Bears
Sep 25?vs Colorado—
Sep 19?vs Louisiana Tech—
Sep 12?vs Prairie View A&M—
Sep 5?@ Auburn—
Arizona State Sun Devils
Sep 19?@ Kansas—
Sep 12?@ Texas A&M—
Sep 5?vs Morgan State—
Recent form.
The stakes tilt heavier on the Baylor side. Aranda has three losing seasons in his last four, closed 2025 on a three-game skid in a 5-7 finish, and enters this year on one of the hotter seats in the sport. Arizona State's floor looks safer — an 8-5 season that included two losses by a combined margin to BYU and Houston — but Dillingham's offense has a track record of stalling out when it doesn't have its starting quarterback from the year before, and Boley's job security is still a training-camp story, not a settled fact.
Neither team has anything to prove yet — that's what makes this an interesting litmus test early in Big 12 play. Whichever new quarterback looks more comfortable running his offense by early October will say a lot about which of these two programs is actually building something and which one is still finding its footing.
