The schedule difference matters. Baylor played a conference game on the 26th and then has to travel west for a late kickoff in the desert. Arizona State gets its legs back under it at home after an overseas flight and an open week. The forecast calls for 91 degrees, clear skies and wind around 11 mph at Mountain America Stadium, and a Texas team isn't going to be bothered much by the heat.
What we don't know yet is how good either team really is. Baylor's 3 wins came against an FCS team, a Conference USA team and a Colorado team it held to 13 points. Its only game against a Power 4 opponent with some weight to it was the 1-point loss to Auburn, played mostly without Lagway. Arizona State had its one real test in College Station and lost by 28. The Sun Devils steadied in London, but a 7-point win over Kansas doesn't settle much.
Watch how Lagway moves. He's 1 game back from an ankle injury and he'll be facing a defense that has had 2 weeks to scheme for him. If he looks like he did against Colorado, Baylor has the more complete passing game on the field. If the ankle limits him, Arizona State's rest and home crowd become the story. Either way, the winner leaves 2-0 in the Big 12 with October just starting.