Baylor's roster turnover this offseason was steep — Dave Aranda lost 32 players to the transfer portal and answered by bringing in 29 more, which is its own kind of instability even with Lagway running the show. Auburn, for its part, is breaking in an almost entirely new offensive line to go with a first-year staff. None of that showed up cleanly in a market that still made Auburn a heavy favorite to win outright, even as the spread number moved noticeably toward Baylor in the days leading up to kickoff.
That gap between the moneyline read and the way the spread moved turned out to be the whole story. Auburn built a 10-0 lead before the half and looked every bit like the more talented team, but Brown finished with 3 interceptions and Baylor kept finding ways to answer, tying the game in the fourth quarter and forcing Auburn to win it late instead of running away with it.
Brown's 11-yard touchdown run put Auburn back in front in the fourth quarter — the kind of play that's been his calling card since college, where he's led every FBS quarterback in forced missed tackles since 2023. It showed up right when Auburn's passing game was struggling most. Lagway answered right back, hitting Gavin Freeman for a 5-yard touchdown as the clock ran out to pull Baylor within one.
The two-point try that would have won it for Baylor failed, and Auburn's defense — which had leaned on its pass rush most of the afternoon — got to close it out instead. It's a shaky, turnover-marred way for Golesh to open his Auburn tenure, but a win is a win in Week 1, and Aranda's Baylor team leaves Atlanta with real signs of life despite the loss.
The Polymarket chat room for this one ran quieter than the average game this season, which tracks for a Week 1 opener between two 5-7 teams nobody outside either fan base was fully sold on. Both sides have plenty of tape to review before their next kickoff — Auburn about whether Brown can protect the football against better competition, Baylor about whether an offense that just hung 16 points and 333 yards through the air is finally arriving a year later than Aranda needed it to.