Baylor Bears at BYU Cougars

One team is a preseason Big 12 title favorite with the nation's best returning production. The other is a coach fighting for his job with a brand-new quarterback learning the offense on the fly. That's the gap BYU and Baylor bring into this one.

Bush’s Picks

BAYBYU

BAYBYU

OverUnder

Best BetBYU

BYU brings back nearly two-thirds of its snaps from a 12-win team and returns the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year — that's not a roster Baylor matches up with right now. Lagway gives Baylor a ceiling nobody else on their roster provides, but a first-year starter walking into a projected Big 12 favorite's building is a tough draw. Back BYU here.

Baylor

• +DJ Lagway gives Baylor a true difference-maker at QB
• +New DC Klanderman brought in to fix run D
• +Motivated, hot-seat coaching staff has nothing to lose
• −Coming off disappointing 5-7 season, lost last 5 of 6
• −Lost Robertson, Trigg and top WRs to portal/graduation
• −Allowed 165+ rush yards in every loss last year

BYU

• +Returns 63% of snaps, 2nd-most in the country
• +LJ Martin and Bachmeier both back after breakout seasons
• +Preseason Big 12 coaches' favorite with real CFP odds
• −Lost DC Jay Hill to Michigan with Whittingham
• −New coordinator Poppinga unproven in the role
• −Missed the CFP each of the last two years despite strong records

Start with the quarterbacks, because that's where this game gets decided. Bear Bachmeier enters his second year as BYU's starter after a true freshman season that produced 3,033 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and 11 rushing scores. Across the field, Baylor hands the offense to DJ Lagway, the former five-star who transferred in from Florida after an injury-plagued 2025 that left him with 14 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. One quarterback is building on a breakout year. The other is trying to have one for the first time on a new team.

BYU's whole operation is built to win now. Kalani Sitake's group returns 63% of its snaps from a 12-2 team, second-most in the country, and the roster is loaded with potential All-Americans in running back LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, plus safety Faletau Satuala and linebacker Isaiah Glasker anchoring the defense. Big 12 coaches tabbed the Cougars as their preseason favorite to win the league, and ESPN's FPI has them projected for nearly 9 wins with real College Football Playoff odds. The one dent: defensive coordinator Jay Hill left for Michigan with Kyle Whittingham, so Kelly Poppinga inherits that unit after coordinating special teams.

Show fees

11:00 PM CT

Spread

ML

Total

BAY Baylor

BYU BYU

Baylor's story is the opposite. Dave Aranda's team stumbled to a 5-7 finish last season, losing 5 of its last 6, and the offseason didn't calm anything down — the Bears lost quarterback Sawyer Robertson, tight end Michael Trigg and a run of receivers to the portal and graduation, then lost multiple top recruits days before signing day. Lagway and transfer running back Dawson Pendergrass are supposed to be the fix, and new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman was hired specifically to clean up a run defense that went 0-7 last year whenever it allowed more than 165 rushing yards on the ground. Preseason projections have Baylor going 6-6, which would still count as progress.

Baylor Bears

Nov 6?vs Iowa State—

Oct 30?@ UCF—

Oct 16?vs TCU—

Oct 2?@ Arizona State—

Sep 25?vs Colorado—

Sep 19?vs Louisiana Tech—

Sep 12?vs Prairie View A&M—

Sep 5?@ Auburn—

BYU Cougars

Nov 6?@ Utah—

Oct 30?vs Arizona State—

Oct 16?vs Notre Dame—

Oct 9?vs Iowa State—

Oct 2?@ TCU—

Sep 19?@ Colorado State—

Sep 12?vs Arizona—

Sep 5?vs Utah Tech—

This is a program-trajectory mismatch as much as a game. BYU is chasing a Big 12 title and a playoff bid after back-to-back CFP near-misses. Baylor is chasing bowl eligibility and trying to keep Aranda's seat from getting any hotter. The talent gap on paper — a proven sophomore passer and All-America-caliber pieces on both sides of the ball versus a first-year starter and a defense still figuring out its new coordinator — is significant.

Baylor Bears

(0)

Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report

BYU Cougars

(0)

Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report

None of that guarantees anything by mid-November. Lagway has the ceiling to make this look like a real Big 12 upset if Baylor's run defense holds up, and BYU still has to prove its own new defensive staff can hold a lead against a talented opposing quarterback. But the roster math heavily favors the home team here.