Baylor brought in a former five-star to fix its offense. UCF found its first steady starter in years. Something's got to give on Friday night.
Bush’s Picks
BAYUCF
BAYUCF
OverUnder
Best BetBaylor
Baylor's talent swing at quarterback is the single biggest individual upgrade either roster made this offseason, and that's usually the difference in a game this even on paper. Lagway has already played big-conference snaps and thrown for real production, while UCF is still finding out what it has behind a defense-first identity. Take the Bears to win outright as the more talented team even with all the new faces around Lagway.
Baylor
+DJ Lagway is a former five-star, proven high-major arm
+Aranda added 11 transfer starters to rebuild fast
−Lost 18 players who started 6+ games in 2025
−Only one returning starter outside Lagway
UCF
+Alonza Barnett brings CFP experience and stability at QB
+Defense allowed 3rd-fewest pass yards/game since FBS move
−Went 5-7 in Frost's first year back
−Projected 11th in Big 12, 40-1 longshot preseason
Both of these programs went 5-7 last season and both spent the offseason gutting their quarterback rooms to fix it. Baylor's answer was DJ Lagway, the former Florida starter who threw for 4,179 yards and 28 touchdowns over two seasons in Gainesville before hitting the portal. UCF's was Alonza Barnett III, the Sun Belt Player of the Year who led James Madison to a CFP berth. Neither team has a track record with these guys yet in Big 12 play, and that's exactly what makes this one interesting.
Dave Aranda didn't just add a quarterback, he rebuilt around him — 11 transfer starters in all, replacing 18 players who started at least six games a year ago, including leading rusher Bryson Washington and leading tackler Keaton Thomas. That's a lot of new pieces trying to gel at once, and Lagway is walking into an offense with almost no returning production around him outside right tackle Kaden Sieracki. Aranda has said Lagway looks like a different player with the freedom of Baylor's system compared to what he described as a 'straight jacket' at Florida — the Bears need that to show up on tape, not just in quotes.
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BAY Baylor
UCF UCF
UCF's pitch is stability over star power. Barnett steps into a room that started six different quarterbacks over the previous two seasons, and his dual-threat game fits what Scott Frost wants to run. The bigger asset might be what's already in place: a UCF defense that held opponents to 185.1 passing yards per game last year, the third-lowest mark since the program went FBS. Six of UCF's seven losses in 2025 came by 9 points or more, which either means this team is miles from competitive or one quarter away from flipping a handful of those games.
Baylor Bears
Oct 16?vs TCU—
Oct 2?@ Arizona State—
Sep 25?vs Colorado—
Sep 19?vs Louisiana Tech—
Sep 12?vs Prairie View A&M—
Sep 5?@ Auburn—
UCF Knights
Oct 9?@ Oklahoma State—
Oct 2?@ Houston—
Sep 25?vs TCU—
Sep 19?vs Georgia State—
Sep 12?@ Pittsburgh—
Sep 3?vs Bethune-Cookman—
Recent form.
Preseason forecasters aren't buying UCF yet — one national outlet slotted the Knights 11th in the 16-team Big 12, with sportsbooks pricing them as a 40-1 longshot to win the league. That's a projection from July, not a guarantee for late October, but it tells you the outside expectation is still that Baylor's portal talent infusion eventually wins out. By the time Friday, October 30 rolls around, both rosters will have had two months of tape to sort out who's actually figured out their new quarterback.
Baylor Bears
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
UCF Knights
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
This is the kind of Big 12 game that won't move the ranking needle nationally, but it says a lot about which rebuild is actually working. Baylor has the higher ceiling if Lagway plays like the five-star recruit he once was. UCF has the safer floor with a defense that already knows how to keep games tight. Whichever team's new quarterback settles in faster probably settles this one.
