No lines have posted for this one yet, so the matchup is all there is to go on for now. The best measuring stick is a shared opponent. TCU came to Orlando and lost 21-13. Two weeks before Friday, TCU went to Waco and held Baylor to 6 points in a 17-6 win. That's the same Horned Frogs defense, and very different results against it.
Baylor's offense swings wildly from week to week. This is a team that scored 55 at Arizona State and then managed 6 at home against TCU 2 weeks later. When the Bears get going, they can run up a score on anyone. When they stall, they stall badly. UCF's form has been just as uneven: the Knights lost back-to-back road games at Houston and Oklahoma State, giving up 42 in the second one, and then put up 39 on BYU at home. The Bounce House has done a lot of the work for UCF this season.
UCF has the longer injury list. Barnett's hamstring is the headline, and D. Thomas Jr. at receiver and L. Carter at linebacker are both out with undisclosed injuries. Tight end D. Wade is questionable with a shoulder injury. Baylor has been without safety C. Redding, who is done for the season, and receiver T. Williams Jr. since late summer, so the Bears have had time to adjust. The forecast for Orlando is clear and 77 degrees with about 12 mph of wind, so weather shouldn't be a factor.
There are two things to watch Friday. First, whether UCF can follow up a field-storming win with a focused effort 6 days later. Second, whether Baylor's special teams have sorted out whatever let Kansas get a hand on 3 kicks. A team coming off a big high and a team coming off a brutal loss are both hard to read, and this game sits right between those two moods.