Boise State walks into the Pac-12 as the presumptive top dog. Fresno State just beat them by 23 points the last time they played.
Bush’s Picks
BOISFRES
BOISFRES
OverUnder
Best BetBoise State
Boise State's the more proven outright pick here — Madsen's a three-year starter, the coaching staff just got a long-term vote of confidence, and the roster additions skew toward known commodities. Fresno State's ceiling is real, but hanging a moneyline bet on a not-yet-settled quarterback room is the definition of projection risk. Take the continuity over the question mark until Fresno State proves the new QB situation travels.
Boise State
+Maddux Madsen returns for third year as starter
+Preseason Pac-12 favorite, Riley an All-Pac-12 pick
+Coach Danielson just extended through 2030
−Lost 30-7 to this exact opponent last November
−Madsen missed time to injury in 2025
−Ty Rodgers lost to significant knee injury in camp
−Starting QB job still unsettled after Warner departure
−Leaning on unproven Maryland transfer or injury-recovering backup
−Long shot in early Pac-12 title odds
This one carries extra weight because of what it is: the first-ever Boise State-Fresno State meeting as Pac-12 members, after both programs bolted the Mountain West in the July 2026 realignment. Boise State enters as the league's betting favorite to win the whole thing behind third-year starter Maddux Madsen, a veteran who's thrown for over 6,500 yards in his career even after an injury-shortened, uneven 2025. Fresno State enters with something Boise State doesn't have right now: the last word. The Bulldogs throttled the Broncos 30-7 in Boise last November, out-rushing them 189-91, and that result alone makes this a measuring-stick game instead of a coronation.
Where things get murkier for Fresno State is under center. E.J. Warner is gone, and the presumed replacement is Maryland transfer Khristian Martin, a dual-threat option Matt Entz has built new run-game wrinkles around this offseason — though the job hasn't been formally settled and Jayden Mandal (coming off shoulder surgery) is still in the mix. That's a real swing factor for a team that otherwise returns a strong core, including bowl-tested pieces on both sides of the ball. Boise State, by contrast, isn't worrying about who's taking snaps; Danielson just locked Madsen's head coach into an extension through 2030 and spent the offseason adding juco and portal playmakers around him instead of replacing him.
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BOIS Boise State
FRES Fresno State
Running back is a strength for both sides, which should make this one competitive on the ground no matter who's throwing it. Boise State's Dylan Riley is a preseason All-Pac-12 pick after topping 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2025, while Fresno State's Rayshon Luke was the one gashing Boise State for 88 yards in that November win and returns as the engine of Entz's offense. Both programs are also selling a version of continuity — Boise State's title-game pedigree against Fresno State's remarkable roster retention off an Arizona Bowl-winning debut season for Entz — and this is where that continuity actually gets tested against a real opponent instead of a spring practice script.
Boise State Broncos
Oct 3?vs Utah State—
Sep 25?@ Western Michigan—
Sep 19?vs South Dakota—
Sep 12?vs Memphis—
Sep 5?@ Oregon—
Fresno State Bulldogs
Oct 3?@ Washington State—
Sep 26?vs Rice—
Sep 19?@ San José State—
Sep 12?vs Sacramento State—
Sep 4?@ USC—
Recent form.
Injuries are still an early-camp story more than a game-week one this far out, but Boise State has already had a scare: Illinois transfer Ty Rodgers went down with a significant knee injury in the first week of summer workouts, a loss that stings more given how thin the position battles were already trending. Fresno State's health picture reads cleaner for now, mostly because its biggest question mark is a competition, not an injury.
Boise State Broncos
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Fresno State Bulldogs
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Zoom out and this is exactly the kind of game the new-look Pac-12 needed on its schedule: last year's Mountain West bowl teams, one carrying preseason favorite status and one carrying a fresh receipt for beating that favorite. Saturday, October 10 won't decide anything by itself, but it's an early signal of who's actually the class of this rebuilt league.
