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Boston College Eagles at Duke Blue Devils

Oct 31, 202611:00 AM CTCWDurham, NC
By JR·3 min read
Boston College(4-3)
Duke(5-2)
11:00 AM

TLDR: Boston College just ran for 396 yards in Atlanta, and Duke has spent October finding out how many ways a game can come down to the final 4 minutes. Both teams are 2-2 in the ACC, and the loser of Saturday, October 31 at Wallace Wade drops into the bottom half of the league.

SAT 10/31, 11:00 AM CT · Week 9CW
Boston College
(4-3)
WWLLW
Duke
(5-2)
WLLWW
Kickoff 65°

Boston College, 3-3 and coming off a 396-yard rushing day in a 49-27 win at Georgia Tech, visits 5-2 Duke in a game between 2 teams that are 2-2 in the ACC. Duke has scored 19 to 25 points in each of its 3 ACC games since its nonconference blowouts, losing 2 of them late and winning the third on a running back's trick-play pass. The game likely turns on whether Duke's run defense, which Virginia's Jekail Middlebrook ran over for 117 yards, can slow the Eagles' ground game, and whether Nate Sheppard gets back on track after being held to 55 yards.

Boston College Eagles
  • 396 rushing yards, 27 first downs at Georgia Tech
  • 37 second-half points after trailing 10-0
  • Beat Georgia Tech, which beat Duke
  • Only 101 passing yards; one-dimensional if run is stopped
  • RB E. Dickens questionable with leg injury
  • Managed 14 and 16 points in losses to VT, SMU
Duke Blue Devils
  • Nate Sheppard leads the ACC in rushing
  • Gavin Strange 2-for-2 on 39-yarders filling in
  • 5-2 with both losses by 4 or fewer
  • Scored 25, 20, 19 in last 3 ACC games
  • K Salas out for season, S Pellicciotta out
  • Middlebrook ran 24 times for 117 on this defense

Start with how each offense is moving the ball right now, because neither looks the way it did in September. Boston College threw for 101 yards at Georgia Tech and didn't need more: Mason McKenzie ran for 101, the Eagles put up 27 first downs, and they scored 37 points in the second half after trailing 10-0 at the end of the first quarter. Duke's offense runs through Nate Sheppard, the ACC's leading rusher, and Virginia held him to 55 yards on 15 carries. Most of that came on a 32-yard touchdown run on the opening drive. Duke still won because Sheppard threw a 28-yard trick-play touchdown to a wide-open Brody Keefe with 1:14 left.

Duke has things to sort out under center and at kicker. ESPN's recap of the Virginia game has Dan Mahan, listed as the backup, taking most of the quarterback snaps. That's worth watching all week, because Duke hasn't said anything about it in public. Kicker C. Salas is out for the season, but Gavin Strange made both of his 39-yarders in Charlottesville, and close games have a habit of ending up on his foot. Boston College is also waiting on RB E. Dickens, who was questionable with a leg injury before the Georgia Tech game. The Eagles ran for nearly 400 yards without needing him to carry the day.

Both teams are 2-2 in the ACC but got there differently. Duke is 5-2 overall, and its losses were 25-28 at Georgia Tech and 20-24 at home to North Carolina, both decided late. Manny Diaz said as much after Virginia: the last 4 minutes went against Duke for 2 weeks before his team finally finished one. Boston College is 3-3 and has won 2 straight as of this week. Its losses to Virginia Tech and SMU came with 14 and 16 points, and the offense only really got going in the last 2 games.

Boston College Eagles
(4-3)
10/24W@Georgia Tech49-27
10/17WvsPittsburgh27-21
10/03L@19SMU16-25
09/26LvsVirginia Tech14-21
09/19WvsMaine22-16
Duke Blue Devils
(5-2)
10/23W@Virginia19-16
10/17LvsNorth Carolina20-24
10/10L@Georgia Tech25-28
09/26WvsWilliam & Mary62-7
09/19WvsStanford35-7

The early-season Duke numbers deserve some caution. The 35-7 win over Stanford and the 62-7 win over William & Mary are where the big totals came from. Since then Duke has scored 25, 20 and 19 against ACC defenses. That's a team grinding out one-score games, not a team running people off the field. Boston College's rushing day came against Georgia Tech, the same opponent that beat Duke 28-25. That doesn't prove anything, but it's the closest thing to a common measuring stick these two have.

The forecast won't decide anything. It calls for 71 degrees, partly cloudy, a 10 mph wind and a 1% chance of rain, which is good running weather in Durham. Expect a lot of handoffs. Boston College wants to keep running the ball the way it just did. Duke wants Sheppard to get back to his usual workload against a defense that gave up 101 rushing yards to Georgia Tech. Duke's run defense is the bigger question after Jekail Middlebrook ran 24 times for 117 yards against it. If that happens again with the Eagles' backs, Boston College controls the clock and the game, and Duke ends up in another fourth-quarter finish.

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