Buffalo and Ball State close out a Tuesday night on the MAC schedule with two programs headed in very different directions — one trying to rediscover 2024, the other trying to prove last year was rock bottom.
Bush’s Picks
BUFBALL
BUFBALL
OverUnder
Best BetBuffalo
Buffalo enters as the side with the sturdier track record — Pete Lembo has already won more games through his first two seasons than any coach in program history, even after last year's step back. Ball State is rebuilding from a 4-8 finish under a brand-new staff and returns almost none of last year's defense. Until the Cardinals prove the new pieces actually fit together, backing the Bulls to win outright is the safer read.
Buffalo
+Lembo has program's most wins through 2 seasons
+2024 breakout (9-4) shows a real ceiling
−Regressed to 5-7 (4-4 MAC) in 2025
−Three-way QB competition unresolved this spring
Ball State
+New coach Uremovich attacked roster via portal
+Added Smith Jr., Jackson, Griffin as difference-makers
−Finished 4-8 in 2025, worst-ranked returning D in FBS
−O-line allowed 2nd-most sacks per game nationally
Pete Lembo has already banked more wins through his first two seasons in Buffalo than any coach in program history, but the follow-up wasn't kind — the Bulls slipped to 5-7 (4-4 MAC) in 2025 after that 9-4 breakout the year before. Buffalo spent spring practice sorting out a genuine quarterback competition between Jason Wright, Mason Cumbie and Elijah Holmes, and how that resolves by November matters more for this game than almost anything else on the depth chart.
Ball State is starting over in a different way. First-year coach Mike Uremovich inherited a 4-8 team and went shopping in the portal, landing receiver Jabari Smith Jr. from FAU and defensive backs Chris Jackson (Colorado State) and Dianté Griffin (Ohio State) to patch a unit that returns almost nobody. Whether those transfers look ready for a November MAC game the way they looked in fall camp is basically the whole story here.
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BUF Buffalo
BALL Ball State
None of that offseason work fixes the glaring problem up front for the Cardinals: last year's offensive line gave up the third-most tackles for loss and the second-most sacks per game in the entire FBS. Ball State can add all the skill talent it wants, but if that trench issue isn't solved, Smith and the new receivers won't have time to matter.
Buffalo Bulls
Nov 3?@ Miami (OH)—
Oct 16?vs Massachusetts—
Oct 9?@ Toledo—
Oct 2?vs Western Michigan—
Sep 26?vs Robert Morris—
Sep 19?@ Penn State—
Sep 12?@ Florida International—
Sep 3?vs UAlbany—
Ball State Cardinals
Nov 3?@ Massachusetts—
Oct 16?@ Bowling Green—
Oct 9?@ Northwestern—
Oct 2?vs Toledo—
Sep 25?@ Kent State—
Sep 19?@ Liberty—
Sep 12?vs Stony Brook—
Sep 5?@ Ohio State—
Recent form.
Willizhuan Yates and Derek Fields are the two returning starters holding together a Ball State defense that lost almost everyone else off it, and how much they can steady a young secondary will decide whether Buffalo's skill players get comfortable early. Buffalo, for its part, gets to lean on the fact that Lembo's program has already shown it can win MAC games at a level Ball State hasn't touched in years.
Buffalo Bulls
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Ball State Cardinals
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
By the second Tuesday in November, both teams will know exactly what they are — either Buffalo has steadied a shaky season or Ball State's transfer haul has actually turned a rebuild into a surprise. Late-season MAC games like this one tend to come down to whichever roster is healthier and hungrier down the stretch, and right now that edge still points to the Bulls.
