Ball State's offense isn't the problem. The Cardinals have scored 30 or more in 3 of their last 4 games, including a 34-17 home win over Sacramento State and a 32-31 win at Bowling Green. The defense is the issue: it gave up 39 at home to Toledo, 45 at Northwestern and 31 at UMass, where Ball State put up 30 and still lost by a point.
These two have played 3 of the same MAC teams, and the results don't match. Buffalo went 3-0 against them: 23-8 at Toledo, 31-24 over Bowling Green and 25-18 over UMass, and its defense kept all 3 games under control. Ball State went 1-2 against the same 3. It gave up 39 to Toledo and split 2 one-point games with Bowling Green and UMass. Buffalo's only loss in its last 5 was a 20-17 home game against Western Michigan, so even the bad day was close.
For Ball State, the job is pretty simple: keep Morrow in front of them and make Wright march the length of the field. The weather could help with that. The early forecast called for a cold, clear night. The game-day forecast at Scheumann Stadium is 53 degrees with light wind and a 68% chance of rain, which is a real problem for an offense running through a backup quarterback throwing downfield to 1 receiver. Buffalo is the team with something to protect. Ball State is 3-6, so a 7th loss ends any bowl talk. The Cardinals have also played 2 one-point MAC games in their last 3, so they have nothing to lose by playing loose.
