Buffalo's coming off a step back, FIU's coming off a bowl blowout, and both programs are trying to figure out who they actually are in Year 2.
Bush’s Picks
BUFFIU
BUFFIU
OverUnder
Best BetFlorida International
FIU's the team trending in the right direction after turning around a three-year 4-8 rut, and that program momentum is worth banking on at home. Buffalo's regression from 9-4 to 5-7 raises real doubts about whether last year's close-game magic is sustainable. The gap here is more about direction than raw talent, and direction favors the Panthers.
Buffalo
+2024 was the best debut season in UB coaching history
+3-1 in MAC road games, tied program record
−Regressed hard from 9-4 to 5-7 in 2025
−QB situation for 2026 still unclear
Florida International
+Turned three straight 4-8 seasons into a 7-5 bowl team
+Simmons earned a contract extension for the turnaround
−Lost starting QB Keyone Jenkins to UCF in the portal
−Lost 3 of 5 starting O-linemen, got run over 57-20 in the bowl
This one's a study in opposite trajectories. Buffalo looked like a MAC contender in 2024 when Pete Lembo posted the best debut season in program history at 9-4, only to crater to 5-7 last fall. FIU went the other way, with Willie Simmons turning a program that had posted three straight 4-8 seasons into a 7-5 outfit that made its first bowl trip since 2019. Neither team is walking into Saturday, September 12 with much national attention, but both have real questions to answer early.
The Panthers' biggest question is under center. Keyone Jenkins, who threw for 1,874 yards and 14 touchdowns last season and started 33 games over three years in Miami, bolted for UCF in the portal on New Year's Day. FIU responded by bringing in App State transfer JJ Kohl, a 6-foot-7 pocket passer who threw for 1,465 yards and 12 touchdowns in just 8 games last year. It's the program's first real quarterback competition since 2024, and however it shakes out, Kohl or whoever wins the job will be doing it behind a rebuilt line after FIU lost 3 of 5 starting O-linemen to the portal and graduation.
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BUF Buffalo
FIU Florida International
Buffalo's issues are less about one position and more about consistency. Seven of the Bulls' 12 games last year were decided by one score, including last-second wins over Kent State, UMass and Eastern Michigan — the kind of results that can mean a team is either building a winning identity or just getting lucky. A trip into the state of Florida to open FIU's home slate is a tough early gut-check either way.
Buffalo Bulls
Sep 3?vs UAlbany—
Florida International Panthers
Sep 5?@ South Florida—
Recent form.
FIU's turnaround under Simmons earned him a contract extension, and the program's buy-in is real — but a 57-20 First Responder Bowl loss to UTSA is a reminder the Panthers still have a gap to close against solid competition. Buffalo, meanwhile, gets to see how much last year's late-game grit carries over now that the schedule resets.
Buffalo Bulls
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Florida International Panthers
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Neither side is walking in as a finished product, which is exactly why this early-season trip is worth watching for fans of either program — it's a clean look at whether Buffalo's regression was a blip and whether FIU's new-look offense can hold up once the roster shuffling settles down.
