Two programs that know exactly what it's like to fall short of their own hype collide in Oxford, with Buffalo hunting bowl eligibility and Miami defending its spot atop the MAC pecking order.
Bush’s Picks
BUFM-OH
BUFM-OH
OverUnder
Best BetMiami (OH)
Miami's track record of getting the most out of close MAC games — three straight trips to Detroit — makes the RedHawks the safer moneyline lean at home. Buffalo's late-season collapse in 2025 is the bigger red flag of the two team profiles, and until its quarterback competition settles, backing the Bulls outright on the road is a leap of faith.
Buffalo
+9-4 breakout debut season for Lembo in 2024
+Has shown it can win shootouts and OT games
−Collapsed to 5-7, missed bowl eligibility in 2025
−Lost 4 of final 5 games last season
−Three-way QB battle still unresolved this spring
Miami (OH)
+Three straight MAC Championship Game appearances
+Found offensive spark via in-season QB change last year
+Owned key tiebreakers to reach 2025 title game
−Lost MAC title game 23-13 to Western Michigan
−New offensive coordinator installing new system
−QB job open again between Gotkowski and two transfers
This one's a study in contrasts dressed up as a coin flip. Miami (OH) has made three straight MAC Championship Game appearances and enters as the program with the higher floor, while Buffalo is still trying to prove 2024's 9-4 breakout wasn't a mirage after a 5-7 stumble last fall. Both head coaches know the margins in this league are razor-thin, and a midweek MACtion slot in Oxford is exactly the kind of game that decides who's playing for something in November and who's playing out the string.
The bigger swing factor for both sides might be under center. Miami is coming off a season where a midseason quarterback change from Henry Hesson to Thomas Gotkowski unlocked the offense and helped push the RedHawks to a 45-24 win over Ball State that punched their MAC title ticket. Gotkowski isn't guaranteed the job again, though — he's fending off transfers David McComb and Caleb Heavner under new offensive coordinator Gus Ragland. Buffalo has its own three-man competition brewing between Jason Wright, Mason Cumbie and Elijah Holmes, so neither sideline is walking into this with total clarity on who's throwing it.
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BUF Buffalo
M-OH Miami (OH)
That uncertainty cuts both ways. Miami's title-game pedigree buys it some benefit of the doubt, but a new-look offense installing fresh terminology can be a slow build, and Buffalo has shown it can hang in shootouts — it needed overtime to beat Eastern Michigan and rallied late to beat UMass last season. If either quarterback battle hasn't settled by Nov. 3, this could come down to which team's supporting cast covers for the shakier passing game.
Buffalo Bulls
Oct 16?vs Massachusetts—
Oct 9?@ Toledo—
Oct 2?vs Western Michigan—
Sep 26?vs Robert Morris—
Sep 19?@ Penn State—
Sep 12?@ Florida International—
Sep 3?vs UAlbany—
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Oct 16?vs Akron—
Oct 9?@ Massachusetts—
Oct 2?vs Bowling Green—
Sep 25?vs UConn—
Sep 19?@ Cincinnati—
Sep 12?vs Holy Cross—
Sep 5?@ Pittsburgh—
Recent form.
Buffalo's collapse down the stretch last year is the real red flag here — four losses in five games to close 2025, including that season-ending 31-26 defeat to Ohio, kept Pete Lembo's group out of a bowl game entirely. Miami's fade was gentler and came against far better competition, losing the MAC title game 23-13 to Western Michigan after climbing out of an 0-3 hole to even get there. Recent history says Miami knows how to win the games that matter in this league; Buffalo is still trying to remember how.
Buffalo Bulls
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Miami (OH) RedHawks
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Whatever each team's quarterback rooms look like by the time Oxford rolls around, this reads like a program-standing game as much as anything — proof-of-concept for Lembo's rebuild versus another data point for Miami's case as the MAC's most consistent operation.
