TLDR: Two teams that live in one-score games meet on a Tuesday night in November, with a share of the MAC lead at stake. Buffalo and Miami (OH) are both 5-3, both 3-1 in league play, and neither one has blown anybody out lately.
Buffalo and Miami (OH) meet with identical 5-3 records and 3-1 conference marks. Both are on backup quarterbacks, Jason Wright for the Bulls and Caleb Heavner for the RedHawks, and both have thin, injury-hit receiving groups. Each has won 3 straight, mostly by a score or less, so this looks like a fourth-quarter game where the home field and a late drive could decide first place in the MAC.
+Has won 3 straight, with comeback drives late in close games
+Heavner coming off a season-high 221 passing yards
+Plays at Yager Stadium
−On its third quarterback after McComb and Gotkowski went down
−Missing 2 tight ends plus receivers Hyatt and Reynolds
−3 of the last 5 wins came by 3 points or fewer
Neither team is on its opening-day quarterback. Buffalo lost Elijah Holmes to a season-ending knee injury in Week 2, and Jason Wright has run the offense since. Going into the Bowling Green game he had 860 passing yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Those are game-manager numbers on a team that has won by grinding. Miami is deeper down its depth chart: Thomas Gotkowski and Dequan McComb are both out for the season, so the job belongs to Caleb Heavner. He just had his best day, a season-high 221 passing yards with 1 touchdown through the air and 1 on the ground in the 28-27 win at Central Michigan.
The injury list around those quarterbacks is just as important. Buffalo is down 3 receivers: B. Mays, T. Richards and J. Gathings are all listed out, with no timetable for Richards or Gathings. Miami's receiving corps took hits too. D. Hyatt and K. Reynolds are out at receiver, and the RedHawks are missing 2 tight ends in C. Ross and E. Karner. Both offenses will be throwing to guys who weren't the plan in August. Nobody has posted a number on this one yet.
What both teams do have is practice at finishing. Miami has won its last 3, and 4 of its last 5 games were decided by 4 points or fewer. The Central Michigan win was the most dramatic of them: down 6 late, the RedHawks went 75 yards in 8 plays and D'Shawntae Jones scored from 2 yards out with 1:41 left. Buffalo has also won 3 straight as of this week, the latest a 31-24 win over Bowling Green, and has only lost once in its last 5, by 3 to Western Michigan.
The margins tell you what kind of game to expect. Buffalo needed everything to beat FCS Robert Morris 31-28. The defense carried a 23-8 win at Toledo, the one road game in the Bulls' last 5. Miami's only comfortable result in that stretch was 34-14 over Akron. Its other 3 wins came by 3, 1 and 1. Neither team has shown it can pull away from a decent MAC opponent, so expect this to come down to the fourth quarter.
Miami gets the home crowd at Yager Stadium and Buffalo has to travel on a short week. Both teams also get extra time to rebuild their passing games before Tuesday, November 3, and that may matter most. Whichever quarterback finds a reliable target among the backups probably leaves Oxford alone atop the MAC standings.
Robert Morris31-28
