Penn State's entire program looks different from the one that started 2025 — new coach, new quarterback, dozens of new faces — and Buffalo is about to find out how different in a hurry.
Bush’s Picks
BUFPSU
BUFPSU
OverUnder
Best BetPenn State
Penn State brings a vastly more talented roster onto the field, even with all the offseason turnover, and Buffalo is replacing its starting quarterback after a bowl-less season. This is about as lopsided a talent gap as college football offers, and the Nittany Lions should win comfortably regardless of how far along the new-look offense is.
Buffalo
+WRs McMillan and Snow return with real production
+Lembo enters year three with rebuilt structure
−Missed bowl eligibility at 5-7 in 2025
−Losing 4-year starting QB Roberson to graduation
−Roster reportedly picked over in transfer portal
Penn State
+Matt Campbell brought proven QB Rocco Becht
+24 of 40 transfers followed Campbell from Iowa State
+Talent gap over a MAC opponent is significant
−55 new players means unknown team chemistry
−Program still stabilizing after Franklin's midseason firing
This is the first real look at the Matt Campbell era outside of the season opener gauntlet. Campbell left Iowa State for Penn State in April after the Nittany Lions fired James Franklin mid-season, and he didn't come alone — 24 of his 40 incoming transfers followed him from Ames, along with QB1 Rocco Becht, his three-year starter who's thrown for roughly 10,000 career yards. By Week 3, Penn State should have a real sense of whether that rebuilt roster is clicking.
Buffalo shows up off a rough 2025 — a 5-7 finish, 4-4 in the MAC, capped by a season-ending loss to Ohio that kept them out of a bowl. Senior QB Ta'Quan Roberson, who threw for over 2,500 yards last season, is gone, and reports out of the offseason paint Buffalo's roster as one of the mid-majors that got picked over hardest in the transfer portal. Pete Lembo enters year three trying to find stability before this one even kicks off.
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BUF Buffalo
PSU Penn State
The history here isn't close. Penn State has won three straight meetings by 21-plus points each time, and Buffalo's only victory in the series came back in 1900. Nothing about either program's current trajectory suggests that trend reverses on September 19.
Buffalo Bulls
Sep 12?@ Florida International—
Sep 3?vs UAlbany—
Penn State Nittany Lions
Sep 12?@ Temple—
Sep 5?vs Marshall—
Recent form.
Buffalo isn't devoid of pieces — wideouts Nik McMillan and Victor Snow both return after combining for well over 1,700 yards and 11 touchdowns last fall, and they'll need to be the engine of whatever new-QB offense Lembo builds. But replacing a four-year starter under center while trying to avoid a second straight non-bowl season is a lot to ask against a Power 4 roster this talented, even a Penn State group still figuring itself out.
Buffalo Bulls
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Penn State Nittany Lions
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
For Penn State, the real intrigue isn't whether they win — it's whether Becht and the wave of transfer talent look like a cohesive team by mid-September or still like a roster in progress. Analysts have called the 2026 season nearly impossible to project because of how much turned over, and a Week 3 tune-up against a MAC team coming off a losing season is exactly the kind of game where that answer starts to show.
