Toledo's whole operation got a facelift over the offseason. Buffalo's just trying to figure out who's taking snaps. That imbalance is the whole story heading into this one.
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Best BetToledo
Toledo brings a proven head coach, the MAC's top-ranked transfer class, and a QB who's actually settled into the job — Buffalo can't say the same on any of those fronts. The gap in continuity alone makes the Rockets the side to trust here, even accounting for first-year system risk. Buffalo's got the pride factor in a rivalry game, but that's thinner ground than roster talent.
Buffalo
+Lembo entering year 3, program continuity
+won 9 games in his first season
−Finished 5-6 in 2025, 7th in MAC
−lost 26 players to the transfer portal
−no named starting QB after spring
Toledo
+Finished 8-5, tied for 2nd in MAC in 2025
+Jacobs brings a 94-23 career coaching record
+landed the MAC's No. 1-ranked transfer class
−First-year head coach installing new systems
−Richter is an unproven starter after years as a backup
Both teams walk into Friday, October 9 still sorting out life at quarterback, but they're doing it from very different starting points. Toledo handed the keys to John Alan Richter, a third-year backup who spent years watching from the sideline before finally getting his shot. Buffalo, meanwhile, hasn't settled anything — the Bulls opened spring practice with a three-way battle between Jason Wright, Mason Cumbie and Elijah Holmes and didn't name a starter coming out of it.
The bigger swing is up top. Toledo fired up a completely new era under Mike Jacobs, who arrives with a 94-23 career record between stops at Mercer, Lenoir-Rhyne and Notre Dame College. He didn't come alone — his transfer haul, headlined by RB CJ Miller and WR Adjatay Dabbs, was ranked the No. 1 class in the MAC. Buffalo's Pete Lembo is entering year 3 trying to stop the bleeding after a 5-6 finish, and the Bulls lost 26 players to the portal this offseason, including their top two receivers.
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Toledo's got the pedigree case on paper — an 8-5 season, a share of 2nd place in the MAC, and a Boca Raton Bowl appearance behind them, even if that ended in a loss to Louisville. Buffalo's counter is program continuity: Lembo's staff knows this league, and MAC previews still lump Buffalo ahead of the conference's bottom tier heading into the season.
Buffalo Bulls
Oct 2?vs Western Michigan—
Sep 26?vs Robert Morris—
Sep 19?@ Penn State—
Sep 12?@ Florida International—
Sep 3?vs UAlbany—
Toledo Rockets
Oct 2?@ Ball State—
Sep 25?vs San Diego State—
Sep 19?vs Temple—
Sep 12?vs Central Connecticut—
Sep 4?@ Michigan State—
Recent form.
History says this series doesn't always play out the way the rosters suggest. Toledo and Buffalo have split their last nine meetings close to even — Toledo leads 5-4 — and their most recent memorable clash, in 2022, turned into a full-blown collapse for the Rockets after they'd pulled off a comeback of their own the week before. Neither program treats this one as a formality.
Buffalo Bulls
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Toledo Rockets
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
The bigger unknown for both sides is whether the new pieces gel fast enough. Toledo installed a new coordinator staff on both sides of the ball under Jacobs, and first-year systems don't always click cleanly against divisional-style pressure this deep into a MAC schedule. Buffalo's issue is simpler and scarier: whoever wins that quarterback battle has to do it behind a roster that lost nearly two dozen bodies to the portal. Whichever team answers its bigger question first probably wins this game.
