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Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets

Oct 10, 20262:30 PM CTESPN+Toledo, OH
By JR·2 min read
Buffalo(2-3)
Toledo(4-1)
2:30 PM

TLDR: Toledo has spent the past month running over people, and Buffalo has spent it losing coin-flip games with a battered roster. Saturday, October 10, at the Glass Bowl is the MAC putting the two side by side.

Week 6 · 10/10, 2:30 PM CTESPN+
Buffalo
(2-3)
LWLLW
Toledo
(4-1)
WWWWL
Kickoff78°

Toledo is 4-1, unbeaten since a season-opening loss at Michigan State, and comes off a 352-yard rushing day at Ball State led by CJ Miller. Buffalo is 2-3 and starting Jason Wright at quarterback with E. Holmes out. A long list of injured backs, receivers and the kicker leaves the Bulls relying on Burch's running. Mild, clear weather in Toledo means the game should come down to whether Buffalo's thinned offense can keep pace with the Rockets' run game.

Buffalo Bulls
  • Burch ran for 106 against Western Michigan
  • 4 of 5 games decided by one score or less
  • Wright efficient, 11-of-18 for 170 last time out
  • Starting QB Holmes out with knee injury
  • 3 receivers, 2 backs and kicker listed out
  • Failed on fourth-and-goal from the 2 to lose
Toledo Rockets
  • CJ Miller: 196 yards, 2 TDs at Ball State
  • 352 rushing yards against Ball State
  • Clean injury report going into October

Start with the quarterbacks, because Buffalo's situation decides everything else. E. Holmes is listed out with a knee injury, so Jason Wright has been running the offense, and against Western Michigan he was efficient without being explosive: 11-of-18 for 170 yards. The Bulls leaned on Burch, who ran for 106, and that ground game is about the only thing that has looked reliable for them this fall.

Wright also ended that game a couple of feet short. Buffalo drove 74 yards after Western Michigan's go-ahead field goal and got to fourth-and-goal from the 2 with 2 seconds left. Wright raced for the pylon and Scoop Gardner Jr. stopped him short, and Buffalo lost 20-17 at home. The injury list behind him is long: 2 running backs, 3 receivers and the kicker are all listed out, so this offense is short on people before it even sees Toledo's defense.

Toledo is in a very different place. The Rockets are 4-1 and 1-0 in the MAC, with the only loss a 20-30 decision at Michigan State in the opener. They have won 4 straight since, and they took the last one 39-24 at Ball State by doing it the blunt way: 352 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.

CJ Miller is the name to know. He carried 20 times for 196 yards and 2 scores in Muncie, and Toledo put up 17 in the 4th quarter to turn a close game into a comfortable one. A back who gets stronger as defenses get tired is a bad matchup for a Buffalo team that has played 4 of 5 games within a score.

Buffalo Bulls
(2-3)
10/03LvsWestern Michigan17-20
09/26WvsRobert Morris31-28
09/19L@Penn State13-55
09/12L@Florida International20-33
09/03WvsUAlbany21-17
Toledo Rockets
(4-1)
10/03W@Ball State39-24
09/26WvsSan Diego State41-16
09/19WvsTemple49-48
09/12WvsCentral Connecticut63-10
09/05L@Michigan State20-30

The Rockets aren't spotless, though. They gave up 48 to Temple in a 49-48 win at home, so a team that can stretch the field has scored on this defense. The question is whether Buffalo can be that team without its usual receivers. Toledo, meanwhile, has nobody on its injury report, which for a MAC team in October is about as good as it gets.

Buffalo's 2-3 record is honest. The wins came by 4 over UAlbany and by 3 over Robert Morris, and it lost by 13 at FIU and by 42 at Penn State. Toledo has beaten everyone except Michigan State. Weather won't save anybody either: the early forecast calls for 77 degrees, clear skies and a 6 mph wind in Toledo. If Buffalo wants this one, Burch has to keep Miller on the sideline and Wright has to cash in the drives that died short against Western Michigan.

Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets — Buffalo Brings Its Backup QB to the Glass Bowl to Face Toledo's Ground Game | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush