BYU throttled TCU by 31 points last November. TCU gets its shot at payback with the Big 12 race on the line.
Bush’s Picks
BYUTCU
BYUTCU
OverUnder
Best BetBYU
BYU brings the more proven quarterback and a defense that, coordinator change aside, returns six key starters — that's the safer combination heading into a true road environment. TCU has flipped almost its entire secondary and is trusting a first-time Power 4 starter at quarterback, which is a lot of new pieces to ask to upset the league's presumptive favorite. Until Craig and TCU's rebuilt defense prove it in a game like this, BYU is the side to trust straight up.
BYU
+Preseason Big 12 favorite in multiple media polls
+Bachmeier returns after Freshman of Year season
+Blew out TCU 44-13 last November
−Lost leading receiver Kingston to felony expulsion
−Unproven DC Poppinga replaces departed Jay Hill
−Facing one of Big 12's most hostile road crowds
TCU
+Sonny Dykes brings coaching stability, 36 wins in 4 years
+Landed productive Harvard transfer QB Jaden Craig
+RB Jeremy Payne returns as steady lead back
−Lost record-setting starter Josh Hoover to Indiana
−New OC installs run-heavy scheme with new QB
−Secondary overhauled after losing 3x All-Big 12 safety
Kickoff got bumped to Friday night because of LDS General Conference, but nothing else about this one feels like filler. BYU walks in as the Big 12's preseason favorite behind sophomore Bear Bachmeier, who won league Freshman of the Year honors in 2025 and gives Kalani Sitake's offense real continuity. TCU's answer under center is brand new: Sonny Dykes handed the job to Harvard transfer Jaden Craig, who threw 48 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions over two seasons at Harvard, to replace departed record-setter Josh Hoover.
The personnel picture beyond the quarterbacks tilts messier for both sides. BYU is playing without its top receiver from a season ago — Parker Kingston was expelled from school and removed from the team in February after a felony arrest, and first-year defensive coordinator Kelly Poppinga inherits a unit that lost Jay Hill to Michigan. TCU's rebuild runs just as deep on defense, where three-time All-Big 12 safety Bud Clark and two starting cornerbacks are gone, leaving a retooled secondary to face BYU's offense first.
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TCU TCU
None of that stops oddsmakers from circling this as one of the league's marquee dates. BYU comes in the more decorated team on paper, but TCU gets to make its case at home in what's shaping up as a hostile, sold-out Amon G. Carter Stadium — the kind of environment that tends to keep games closer than the name-brand gap between the two rosters suggests.
BYU Cougars
Sep 19?@ Colorado State—
Sep 12?vs Arizona—
Sep 5?vs Utah Tech—
TCU Horned Frogs
Sep 25?@ UCF—
Sep 19?vs Arkansas State—
Sep 12?vs Grambling—
Aug 29?vs North Carolina—
Recent form.
There's real history and a real grudge here too. TCU still holds a 7-6 edge in the all-time series, but the two most recent meetings have gone BYU's way, capped by last year's 44-13 beatdown in Provo — a game BYU's own staff called one of its best of the season. Dykes and the Frogs have had 10 months to stew on that scoreline, and revenge is the loudest storyline this program brings into October.
BYU Cougars
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
TCU Horned Frogs
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
How this shakes out probably comes down to which new-look unit settles in faster — BYU's defense under Poppinga or TCU's offense under new coordinator Gordon Sammis, who's steering Craig toward a slower, run-first attack after years of TCU throwing the ball all over the Big 12. Whoever wins that installation battle probably wins the league race, too.
