The Golden Bears have their own mess to sort out. Cal led No. 23 SMU 20-17 at halftime in Dallas, then lost the second half 42-0 and the game 59-20. The collapse started right after the break: 3 straight three-and-outs to open the half, and SMU scored a touchdown after each one. Kevin Jennings set SMU's career passing record with 3 touchdown throws, and Kendrick Raphael ran for 104 yards and was in on 3 scores. A team that can hang for 30 minutes and then vanish for 30 has a conditioning or a depth problem, and you can't fix either in a week.
The common opponent tells you plenty. Both of these teams got run over by Wake Forest. Cal lost 41-7 at home, and NC State lost 38-14, also at home. Cal's one win in its last 5 was a 25-20 home game against Virginia Tech. NC State's 2 wins in that stretch came in back-to-back home games, 41-31 over App State and 31-28 over Louisville. So the Wolfpack can win at Carter-Finley when the offense gets going. Cal hasn't shown it can win anywhere outside Berkeley during this run.
The injury report hits NC State's skill spots hardest. Tight ends V. Ploog (out for the season), G. Ritchey and S. Brown are all listed out. Running back D. McCoy is out, and D. Scott and receiver J. Trader were both questionable with foot injuries going into Stanford. That's a lot of the offense's middle of the field gone, and it puts more on Bailey and Wilson. Cal is down running back C. Vargas, tight end R. Walker and receiver C. Boscia, all with no timetable, so neither offense shows up at full strength.
The forecast won't get in the way: 64 degrees, clear skies and a 13 mph breeze in Raleigh. There's no posted board yet, so the read is the plain one. NC State has the home field and the more desperate coach. Cal has lost 2 straight and just gave up 42 straight points. Whichever defense holds up in the second half probably decides it, and neither one has given much reason to trust it lately.