Cal's tape before last weekend was all close games. The Golden Bears won 21-18 at Syracuse, lost 39-31 at UNLV and beat Virginia Tech 25-20 with Sagapolutele sidelined. They got blown out by Clemson and Wake Forest, the two best teams they've played. SMU's only loss came at Louisville, 41-31. At home the Mustangs have beaten UC Davis, Missouri State, Boston College and Virginia, and the last 2 of those came in at 25 and 23 points.
Wagner49-7
UC Davis56-10The schedule doesn't help Cal either. The Wake Forest game kicked off at 10:30 PM ET on a Saturday night in Berkeley. Seven days later the Bears play a morning kickoff in Dallas, which feels like breakfast time to a team from the West Coast. SMU played its Virginia game in the early window at home, so its week has been normal.
For SMU the question is whether the offense can run the ball. With Green and Rhodes both out, more of the load falls on Jennings and the passing game. Against Virginia that meant field goals instead of touchdowns. Brendan Baird, a former SMU soccer player, kicked 3 of them and gave a struggling special-teams unit a lift. Against a good defense that kind of offense gives the other team a chance. Cal's defense just gave up 470 yards and 4 touchdown passes to Gio Lopez, so it hasn't been a good defense lately.
If Sagapolutele plays, Cal's passing game with Ian Strong, who has 396 receiving yards, can keep this close the way the Bears kept Syracuse and Virginia Tech close. If he doesn't, Cal will need a lot more from its offense than it showed against Wake Forest. SMU needs a win to keep its spot in the poll and its home streak alive.