Virginia just had the greatest season in program history. Cal just fired its coach mid-season and hit reset. This one's a measuring stick either way.
Bush’s Picks
CALUVA
CALUVA
OverUnder
Best BetVirginia
Virginia is the more finished product here — a coach who just got rewarded with an extension, a program coming off its best season ever, and a quarterback room that added two proven transfers instead of hoping a true freshman figures it out. Cal is mid-rebuild with a first-year head coach learning his own roster in real time. Backing the Cavaliers at home is the straightforward read until Cal proves the new staff has things humming.
California
+Sagapolutele returns as an established, dynamic starter
+Third straight bowl season, program trending up
−First-year head coach mid-system-install
−Preseason ACC projections as low as 11th of 17
Virginia
+Best season in program history, 11-3 in 2025
+Elliott just extended through 2030 off that run
−Starting QB situation entirely new and unsettled
−Lost proven starter Chandler Morris to eligibility ruling
This is only the second meeting ever between these two programs, and the first one didn't go well for Cal — Virginia won 31-21 in Berkeley last November. Now the rematch shifts to Scott Stadium, and the gap between these programs looks even wider on paper. Virginia enters as an ACC contender with real continuity. Cal is starting over.
Tony Elliott just got a contract extension through 2030 after leading Virginia to an 11-3 finish and a Gator Bowl win — the best season in the school's 136-year history, built off a team picked 14th in the ACC preseason poll. The one hole in that machine is at quarterback, where Chandler Morris is gone after losing a legal fight for a 7th year of eligibility. Beau Pribula, a Missouri transfer, looks like the guy to replace him after fielding questions at ACC media days, with Pitt transfer Eli Holstein still in the mix.
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CAL California
UVA Virginia
Cal, meanwhile, fired Justin Wilcox in late November after a Big Game blowout loss to Stanford and turned to Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi — a former Cal player and assistant — to run the program. The good news for Lupoi: sophomore QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is back after a breakout freshman year and gives the offense a foundation while everything else gets rebuilt.
