Both teams are coming off losses, but they don't look the same on tape. Toledo pushed a Power 4 opponent to the fourth quarter before Michigan State pulled away, 30-20, on September 4. Central Connecticut lost its opener to South Dakota, 59-20, an FCS-on-FCS beatdown with nothing flattering in it.
New Toledo coach Mike Jacobs inherited a roster gutted by the coaching change that brought him in — former coach Jason Candle took his quarterback, his top back and six receivers to UConn — and rebuilt on the fly with 58 newcomers, 14 of them following him over from Mercer. That the Rockets still hung with Michigan State in East Lansing says the rebuild has a floor.
John Alan Richter threw for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Spartans, and Adjatay Dabbs turned 4 catches into 101 yards and both those scores — that's the passing combo Toledo will lean on early against an FCS secondary. Connor Walendzak's 71-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter was the single biggest offensive play either team produced that week, and it's the kind of explosive run this Central Connecticut defense gave up 59 points showing it can't reliably stop.
Central Connecticut isn't without answers — kicker Jack Hennessey went perfect on field goals and extra points against South Dakota, and quarterback Conner Kenyon found the end zone through the air despite getting outgunned. But an offense that managed 81 passing yards against one overmatched FCS defense has no path to keeping pace with a MAC roster that just traded touchdowns with a Big Ten team.
Jacobs arrives with a 94-23 career record and back-to-back SoCon Coach of the Year honors at Mercer, and games like this one exist for a new staff to feed reps to a roster still learning the offense. Central Connecticut, at 8-5 last season under Adam Lechtenberg, has had better years than this one is shaping up to be — the guarantee money is the actual return on this trip.