Both programs also spent the offseason working the transfer portal hard, for different reasons. Central Michigan lost 16 players out but landed Michigan State transfer receiver Shawn Foster II to bolster the skill positions. Buffalo's portal offseason was rougher — the Bulls lost multiple players to Power Conference programs, the kind of attrition mid-major coaches dread, leaving a roster that's been described as picked over heading into 2026.
Central Michigan's case for a step forward starts with the trenches. National outlets are flagging a strong offensive line as the foundation for a MAC contender, and preseason projections have the Chippewas grouped near the top of the conference with Miami (OH), Western Michigan and Toledo. That's a real jump from where this program sat a year ago, and it lines up with a 7-6, 5-3 MAC finish that got them into a bowl game in the first place.
The finish wasn't pretty, though. Central Michigan closed 2025 on a 5-game losing skid capped by a 34-7 blowout loss to Northwestern in the GameAbove Sports Bowl, so there's a real question about whether this team can put together a full four quarters against a comparable MAC opponent instead of fading down the stretch.
Buffalo's story is the mirror image. Pete Lembo's group was picked 4th in the MAC preseason a year ago and instead finished 5-7, missing bowl eligibility entirely after riding high off a Bahamas Bowl win to close out the 2024 season. That's the kind of regression that puts a third-year coach on notice, and replacing the quarterback and the departed portal talent at the same time is a tough combination heading into a conference slate.
History leans Central Michigan's way in this series — the Chippewas hold an 8-4 all-time edge dating back to 1999 — but Buffalo won the two teams' most recent meeting, a 37-13 result back in 2023. Whichever quarterback situation stabilizes first between now and kickoff is probably the single biggest swing factor for who actually wins this one.